United Lowers Earnings Expectations for 2026

United Airlines has reduced its profit outlook as elevated fuel prices increase operating expenses, even as passenger demand remains resilient.

The carrier said Tuesday that it expects adjusted earnings of between $0.50 and $1.50 per share in the fourth quarter, below Wall Street analysts’ consensus estimate of $1.76 per share.

At the upper end of that range, United’s adjusted earnings for 2026 would reach no more than $7.22 per share. This represents a substantial reduction from the company’s mid-July forecast of $9 to $11 per share for the full year.

The revised outlook highlights the pressure that higher energy costs are placing on airline profitability. Although strong travel demand has supported revenue and allowed carriers to raise fares, increased fuel expenses have offset part of those gains.

Fuel Expenses Increase as Costs Remain Elevated

United expects its average fuel price to reach $4.80 per gallon in the fourth quarter, compared with $3.90 per gallon in the third quarter.

The pressure was already evident in the latest results. United’s fuel bill rose nearly 62% year over year to $4.84 billion in the third quarter, adding to the airline’s operating expenses.

Higher fuel prices have increased costs across the aviation industry, limiting the extent to which strong passenger demand can translate into higher profits. Airlines have responded by raising fares, but the resulting revenue gains have not fully insulated United from the impact of more expensive fuel.

The fourth-quarter fuel forecast suggests that cost pressures will remain a key factor in determining the company’s near-term earnings performance.

Third-Quarter Revenue Rises Despite Earnings Shortfall

United reported adjusted earnings of $2.54 per share for the quarter ended September 30, slightly below the $2.57 expected by analysts, according to estimates compiled by LSEG.

Revenue reached $17.88 billion, compared with the $17.9 billion consensus estimate. Despite narrowly missing expectations, the airline recorded substantial year-over-year growth in both revenue and net income.

Third-quarter revenue increased 17.4% from $15.23 billion a year earlier. Net income rose 8.5% to $1.03 billion, or $3.14 per share, compared with $949 million, or $2.90 per share, in the same period last year.

After adjusting for one-time items, United reported net income of $833 million, equivalent to $2.54 per share.

Chief Executive Officer Scott Kirby attributed the results to employees’ performance in a changing operating environment and the company’s focus on building customer loyalty.

Higher Fares Have Not Discouraged Travelers

Despite increased costs and higher ticket prices, United said passenger demand continued to grow. Passenger counts were up more than 2% compared with the previous year.

Revenue trends also reflected stronger pricing. Domestic passenger unit revenue increased 14.5% year over year, while international passenger unit revenue rose 17.4%.

These figures indicate that United has continued to generate higher passenger revenue even as fares rise. However, the persistence of demand does not eliminate the risk that fuel expenses will constrain margins.

The key challenge for the airline is maintaining revenue momentum while managing a significantly higher cost base. Its ability to sustain pricing strength and passenger growth will influence how much of the additional revenue translates into earnings.

What Investors Should Watch Next

United’s fourth-quarter performance will depend heavily on fuel prices, passenger demand and the company’s ability to maintain higher fares without weakening bookings.

The difference between its previous full-year earnings forecast and the revised outlook illustrates how quickly rising operating costs can change the financial outlook for an airline, even when revenue growth remains strong.

Investors will also be watching whether fuel prices remain elevated and whether domestic and international pricing strength continues into the next reporting period. These factors will help determine whether United can stabilize profitability after reducing its 2026 earnings expectations.