Oil prices climbed on Thursday as attacks on shipping in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz kept concerns over Middle East supply disruptions elevated. Brent crude futures rose $1.33, or around 1.3%, to $101.53 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained $1.11 to $89.39, keeping both benchmarks under pressure from a renewed geopolitical risk premium.

Shipping Attacks Renew Supply Concerns

The latest rise comes as maritime security risks around the Strait of Hormuz intensify. According to maritime security sources, at least 12 incidents involving attacks, attempted attacks, drone surveillance and radio interference targeted oil, LNG and LPG tankers between September 28 and October 5. The number represents the highest weekly level of such incidents since the Iran war began on February 28.

The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical energy corridor, making any sustained disruption potentially significant for global oil markets. Although Gulf producers have continued exporting crude, attacks are increasing operational and insurance costs and raising uncertainty over the reliability of future shipments. That uncertainty can support prices even when physical supply has not yet suffered a comparable decline.

Oil Flows Have Recovered, but the Risk Premium Remains

The market is facing a delicate balance between improving physical supply and persistent security risks. Middle Eastern crude exports exceeded pre-war levels on four days during the final week of September, reaching between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day on some days, according to provisional Kpler data. The seven-day average stood at 18.5 million barrels per day on October 1.

That recovery has limited the immediate impact of the shipping attacks on global availability. However, a significant share of regional oil is increasingly being routed around the Strait or transferred between tankers, highlighting the logistical adjustments required to maintain flows. The market therefore remains highly sensitive to any escalation that could reduce export capacity or restrict alternative routes.

U.S. Inventories Add Support to Prices

Supply concerns are also being reinforced by U.S. inventory data. Commercial crude stockpiles declined by 3.2 million barrels, a larger reduction than analysts had expected, while distillate inventories fell by 42,000 barrels and remained below typical seasonal levels. The figures provide an additional source of support for crude prices at a time when geopolitical risks are already keeping market participants cautious.

For the broader economy, sustained oil prices above $100 could complicate the inflation outlook by increasing transportation, production and energy costs. This could create an additional challenge for central banks seeking to balance inflation control with economic growth.

Markets will now focus on the frequency of further attacks, the ability of Gulf producers to maintain exports and developments around the Strait of Hormuz. A continued recovery in physical flows could ease some of the geopolitical premium embedded in crude prices, while further disruption to tanker traffic could push Brent higher and increase pressure across global energy markets.