Oil prices advanced for a second consecutive session on Friday, although both major benchmarks remained on course for substantial weekly losses as investors assessed the possibility of reduced geopolitical tensions alongside continuing Middle East supply risks.

Brent crude futures for January delivery rose $1.29, or 1.31%, to $99.58 per barrel as of 0504 GMT, briefly moving above the $100 threshold during morning trading. US West Texas Intermediate futures gained 86 cents, or 0.95%, to $91.38.

Despite the recovery, Brent was heading toward a weekly decline of approximately 12%, while WTI was set to fall 12.1%.

The weekly performance reflects a sharp reversal in sentiment following Tuesday’s US midterm elections and the subsequent reassessment of geopolitical risks.

US Election Results Trigger Reassessment of Iran Conflict

Oil prices declined sharply earlier in the week as investors considered whether the Democrats’ gains in both chambers of Congress could increase the possibility of de-escalation in the US-Israeli war against Iran.

The conflict, now in its ninth month, has been a major source of uncertainty for energy markets.

Following the Democratic sweep, crude prices dropped approximately 8% on Wednesday, settling at their lowest levels in two months.

The market reaction reflected expectations that the changed political balance in Washington could influence the outlook for the conflict and reduce the risk of prolonged disruption to Middle Eastern oil supplies.

However, the subsequent recovery suggests that investors remain cautious about assuming a rapid normalization of regional shipping conditions.

Tanker Attacks Renew Supply Disruption Concerns

Reports of renewed attacks on commercial vessels in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz have provided support for crude prices.

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical shipping route for a majority of Middle Eastern oil shipments, making security conditions in the area particularly important for global energy markets.

Iran reported on Thursday that three additional tankers had been attacked in the strait. Data from the UK’s maritime security agency, UKMTO, also indicated that attacks on oil-carrying vessels remained close to record levels.

The developments have reinforced concerns that geopolitical uncertainty continues to threaten the reliability of regional oil flows, even as markets anticipate a possible reduction in broader military tensions.

Supply Risks Limit Downside in Crude Markets

Tim Waterer, chief analyst at KCM, described Friday’s price increase as a technical recovery following the steep post-election selloff.

However, he emphasized that the underlying concern remained unresolved because tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz had continued despite the US election outcome.

Waterer said oil prices were likely to remain supported during declines and remain vulnerable to sharp movements whenever escalation-related headlines emerge, until a credible path toward safer and less costly transit through the Gulf becomes available.

This reflects the competing forces currently shaping crude markets: expectations of geopolitical de-escalation are weighing on prices, while continuing shipping disruptions are preventing a complete reassessment of supply risks.

What Investors Should Watch Next

The direction of oil prices will depend heavily on developments in the US-Israeli conflict with Iran and the security of commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Investors will be monitoring whether tanker attacks continue at elevated levels and whether diplomatic or political developments translate into more reliable regional oil transportation.

Until shipping conditions improve, the market may remain sensitive to geopolitical headlines, with supply concerns potentially limiting further declines despite expectations of de-escalation.