Brent Crude Rebounds After Previous Session’s Sharp Decline

Oil prices recovered on Thursday, with Brent crude settling more than $3 higher as renewed attacks on tankers in the Middle East raised concerns about supply disruptions.

Brent crude futures finished the session at $98.29 per barrel, gaining $3.67, or 3.88%. US West Texas Intermediate crude rose $2.40, or 2.72%, to settle at $90.52.

The recovery followed a sharp decline on Wednesday, when both benchmarks dropped more than 8%, reaching their lowest settlement levels since August 31.

The reversal reflected continued uncertainty over whether oil flows through the region could normalize quickly. Gelber and Associates said the rebound highlighted caution about assuming that shipping and deliveries would recover before diplomatic progress translated into reliable supply conditions.

Tanker Attacks Keep Shipping Security in Focus

Reports of attacks involving tankers, including incidents involving mines and drones, continued to weigh on market confidence.

According to the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency, at least five vessels have reported incidents in the Gulf since Sunday. The pace of reported attacks remains close to record levels.

The agency reported that 35 vessels were hit in October, the highest monthly total recorded during the war.

Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, said reports of tanker incidents and Iran’s unchanged position regarding negotiations with the United States continued to concern investors.

The developments have reinforced the importance of shipping security in determining whether energy supplies can move reliably through the region.

US-Iran Conflict Remains a Major Market Driver

Oil markets continue to respond to developments in the US-Israeli war with Iran, which began in February under US President Donald Trump and Israel’s involvement.

The conflict contributed to sharply higher fuel prices, becoming a significant concern for US voters ahead of Tuesday’s midterm elections. Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress, defeating Trump’s Republican Party. The newly elected Democratic-controlled Congress is scheduled to take office in January.

The election outcome has introduced additional uncertainty around US foreign policy. Citi noted concerns that, following the midterms, the White House could place greater emphasis on executive powers in foreign affairs, potentially increasing the risk of further escalation with Iran.

Diplomatic Outlook and Supply Normalization Remain Uncertain

Market participants are balancing expectations for a possible reduction in geopolitical tensions against continued risks to shipping and energy infrastructure.

Eurasia Group lowered its estimated probability of renewed US strikes on Iran to 60% from 65%, indicating a modest reduction in its assessment of escalation risk.

However, the continued tanker incidents and unresolved negotiations suggest that a rapid return to normal oil flows cannot yet be assumed.

What Investors Should Watch Next

The direction of crude prices will remain closely tied to developments in the Gulf, particularly the frequency of tanker incidents, the security of shipping routes and the progress of US-Iran negotiations.

Investors will also be monitoring whether diplomatic developments lead to dependable improvements in oil transportation. Until shipping conditions become more predictable, geopolitical risk is likely to remain an important component of crude pricing.