Brent Crude Nears a Five-Month High

Oil prices advanced on Tuesday as traders continued to factor geopolitical risks into energy markets. Brent crude futures rose 52 cents, or 0.47%, to $110.07 per barrel by 0628 GMT, after reaching $110.70 in the previous session, its highest level since May 20.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for November delivery, which were due to expire on Tuesday, increased 0.36% to $104.03 per barrel. The more actively traded December contract rose 26 cents, or 0.26%, to $98.80.

The price movements reflect continuing concern about the security of energy infrastructure and maritime transport across the Middle East. With both major benchmarks trading at elevated levels, market participants are assessing the potential consequences of further regional escalation.

Analysts at ING said oil remained well supported by a significant geopolitical risk premium. They noted that this premium could gradually diminish if oil flows continued without interruption, although the prevailing situation had yet to provide clear evidence of such a normalization.

Houthi Claims Raise Concerns Over Saudi Energy Infrastructure

Geopolitical tensions intensified after Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi group said on Monday that it had launched attacks against several Saudi energy, airport, and military targets. The locations named included an Aramco site in Yanbu, the Shaybah oilfield, King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, and Abha airport.

Saudi authorities had not immediately confirmed the claims, and Reuters could not independently verify them. The reported attacks nevertheless added to concerns about the vulnerability of energy infrastructure in a region central to global oil supply.

Separately, at least 18 vessels were reportedly attacked over a two-week period, according to ship-tracking company Kpler. The reports have sustained concerns about maritime security and the potential for disruptions to crude oil shipments.

The attacks come amid broader regional instability. A separate Houthi attack on a training camp for government security forces in Yemen’s Shabwa province reportedly killed 58 people and injured more than 200 on Monday.

For oil markets, the key concern is whether the security situation begins to affect physical supply flows rather than remaining primarily a source of risk-related price premiums.

U.S. Inventories and Russian Supply Add to Market Uncertainty

In the United States, crude oil inventories were expected to have declined in the previous week, alongside refined product stockpiles, according to a preliminary Reuters poll published on Monday. The anticipated drawdown could provide additional support to prices, although the report did not include confirmed inventory figures.

Developments in U.S. policy toward Russian energy exports also remain relevant. President Donald Trump’s executive order on Friday waived key Russia-related sanctions and tariffs, including certain duties and penalties associated with purchases of Russian energy. However, Trump said on Saturday that a final decision had not been announced, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated that officials needed more time to evaluate the situation.

Russia’s crude oil production increased by 65,000 barrels per day in September to 8.43 million barrels per day, according to the International Energy Agency. Production nevertheless remained approximately 870,000 barrels per day below its level a year earlier.

Although the prospect of additional Russian diesel supplies could ease some market pressure, analysts indicated that traders remained more concerned about the risk of further damage to energy infrastructure across the Gulf region.

What Investors Should Watch Next

The near-term direction of oil prices will depend on whether geopolitical tensions escalate, whether reported attacks affect actual supply flows, and whether U.S. inventory data confirms a tightening market.

Sustained oil shipments without significant disruption could gradually reduce the geopolitical premium embedded in prices. Conversely, damage to critical infrastructure or interruptions to maritime transport could reinforce upward pressure on crude benchmarks.

Investors should also monitor developments in U.S. policy toward Russian energy, as well as changes in Russian production and refined product availability. These factors could influence the balance between supply risks in the Middle East and potential sources of additional energy supply.