Oil exports from major Middle Eastern producers are rebounding in September as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates increase shipments, offering some relief to a global market that has faced severe disruption since the conflict with Iran began in February. Preliminary tanker-tracking data indicates that regional crude exports are recovering through the Strait of Hormuz, although flows remain well below pre-conflict levels.

Saudi Arabia Drives the Regional Export Recovery

Crude exports from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait and Iran are expected to average 12.8 million barrels per day in September, according to preliminary Kpler data. That would represent the highest level since the start of the US-Israeli war with Iran in February, but still about 6 million barrels per day below the 18.8 million barrels per day recorded in February.

Saudi Arabia is the main driver of the recovery. The kingdom is on track to ship about 5.4 million barrels per day in September, compared with 2.446 million barrels per day in August. Shipments from the country’s Ras Tanura terminal in the Gulf have also increased sharply, reaching about 3.6 million barrels per day in September versus 929,000 barrels per day in August.

Hormuz Becomes More Important to Global Oil Flows

The recovery in exports is closely linked to a shift in Saudi Arabia’s shipping routes. Following attacks that damaged the kingdom’s East-West pipeline and disrupted crude loadings from the Red Sea port of Yanbu, Saudi Arabia redirected more barrels toward Gulf terminals and the Strait of Hormuz.

Exports through Hormuz are expected to reach about 7.4 million barrels per day in September. Kpler data showed that 19 very large crude carriers, each carrying about 2 million barrels of Saudi oil, exited the strait during the previous week. However, the data does not include vessels that may have crossed the waterway with their Automatic Identification System transponders switched off.

Supply Recovery Does Not Eliminate Shipping Risks

The rebound in physical exports is important for the global oil market because the Strait of Hormuz normally carries a substantial share of the world’s energy supplies. Before the conflict began on February 28, roughly 125 large commercial vessels crossed the strait each day, including tankers, gas carriers, bulk carriers and container ships. The waterway accounted for about 20% of global daily crude oil and liquefied natural gas supply.

For oil markets, the recovery in shipments could reduce some of the supply pressure that pushed prices sharply higher earlier in the conflict. However, the gap between current and February export volumes remains significant. The continued reliance on Hormuz also leaves global supply exposed to renewed disruption, while the ability to maintain higher shipments will depend on security conditions and the restoration of alternative export routes.

Investors will therefore be watching Saudi export volumes, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the progress of repairs to the East-West pipeline. A sustained recovery in regional shipments could gradually ease the physical supply premium embedded in oil prices, while renewed attacks or disruptions could quickly reverse the improvement. The balance between rising exports and continued geopolitical risk will remain a key driver of the global oil market in the weeks ahead.