US and Iranian negotiators are exploring a phased agreement that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz while easing Washington’s economic blockade of Iran, according to people familiar with the discussions. The talks, taking place around the United Nations General Assembly in New York, come as the strategic waterway remains central to global energy flows and a major source of uncertainty for oil prices, shipping costs and inflation expectations.

A Phased Deal Could Link Hormuz Access to Economic Relief

The emerging framework would seek to avoid the central obstacle that has repeatedly disrupted negotiations: neither Washington nor Tehran wants to surrender leverage before receiving something in return. Under one possible sequence, Iran would allow navigation through the Strait of Hormuz while the United States would ease its economic blockade, with discussions also involving potential access to frozen Iranian assets.

The proposal follows an earlier understanding reached in June that produced a temporary ceasefire before collapsing several weeks later. Iranian officials have indicated that Tehran could reopen the waterway within days if Washington reduces military pressure and lifts restrictions on Iranian ports. Qatar is among the regional actors involved in facilitating the current diplomatic effort.

Oil Markets Are Pricing Both Supply Risk and Diplomacy

Hormuz has become one of the most important variables for the energy market because disruptions to shipping through the waterway can quickly affect expectations for global crude availability. On September 24, Brent futures rose $3.52, or 3.4%, to settle at $106.60 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate gained 2.7% to $94.61. Both benchmarks had risen by nearly 5% at their session highs before reports of renewed US-Iran discussions helped moderate the move.

A durable reopening of Hormuz could reduce the geopolitical premium embedded in crude prices and ease pressure on energy-importing economies. However, markets are likely to remain sensitive to any evidence that negotiations are stalling, particularly while alternative export routes and regional infrastructure face their own security risks.

What the Agreement Would Mean Beyond Oil

A sustained reduction in tensions could have implications well beyond crude prices. Lower energy costs would potentially reduce inflationary pressure, while improved shipping conditions could support global trade and reduce transportation risks for companies dependent on Gulf energy supplies. For Gulf economies, restoring predictable maritime access would also reduce the economic uncertainty associated with prolonged disruption around one of the world’s most important energy corridors.

The immediate focus will be whether negotiators can turn the broad concept of a phased arrangement into verifiable steps. Investors and policymakers will be watching the status of commercial shipping through Hormuz, US measures against Iran, crude price volatility and any indications that both sides are prepared to maintain commitments over time. A temporary reopening could calm markets, but a durable agreement would require a more stable diplomatic framework than previous ceasefire efforts.