Key Points
- FTSE 100 recovered 0.4%: London's blue-chip index ended higher on Friday, although it recorded its largest weekly decline since late July.
- Banks led the rebound: HSBC gained 1.5% and Barclays rose 1.9% as investors reassessed financial stocks amid expectations that interest rates could remain higher for longer.
- Oil and inflation remain key risks: Crude prices retreated on Friday, but oil above $100 a barrel during the week and increased Bank of England rate expectations kept pressure on market sentiment.
London equities ended higher on September 11 as financial stocks helped reverse part of a week-long selloff triggered by concerns over elevated oil prices, inflation and the economic consequences of the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran. The rebound was relatively modest, however, with both the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 recording their sharpest weekly declines in months.
Banking Stocks Drive Friday’s Recovery
The FTSE 100 gained 0.4% on Friday, while the mid-cap FTSE 250 also advanced 0.4%. Despite the daily improvement, the FTSE 100 posted its biggest weekly loss since late July, while the FTSE 250 recorded its steepest weekly decline in more than four months.
Financial stocks provided much of the support. HSBC gained 1.5%, while Barclays rose 1.9%, recovering after three consecutive sessions of declines. The banking sector benefited from expectations that interest rates could remain elevated for longer, a backdrop that can support lending margins and interest income.
The renewed demand for banks also reflects changing expectations around monetary policy. Markets were pricing approximately 44 basis points of Bank of England rate increases by year-end, compared with around 25 basis points two weeks earlier, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters.
Oil Retreat Provides Temporary Relief
A decline in crude prices offered another source of support for London equities. Oil prices fell around 2% on Friday following reports that Gulf foreign ministers could meet Iranian counterparts to discuss temporary shipping arrangements through the Strait of Hormuz.
The retreat helped reduce some of the immediate inflation concerns that had weighed on European markets throughout the week. Nevertheless, the broader energy picture remains challenging. Oil had moved above the psychologically important $100 a barrel level, leaving the energy sector as the strongest-performing segment of London’s market during the week.
For the UK economy, sustained energy inflation carries broader implications because higher fuel and transportation costs can feed into consumer prices and business expenses. That creates a difficult environment for the Bank of England, particularly if higher energy prices begin to slow economic activity while simultaneously increasing inflation pressure.
UK Growth and U.S. Inflation Shape the Outlook
Domestic economic data provided a more constructive signal. The UK economy grew at its fastest annual pace in 18 months in July, with the expansion potentially receiving support from artificial-intelligence-related activity. The stronger growth reading helped offset some concerns about the economic consequences of higher energy costs.
However, investors were also assessing U.S. inflation data showing that consumer prices increased at their fastest monthly pace in four months during August. The reading reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week, keeping global borrowing costs and bond-market movements firmly in focus.
Individual stocks remained mixed. Gamma Communications fell 2.9% after Waterland ended plans to partner with Giacom on a takeover offer, while Harbour Energy declined 1.9% after its largest shareholder, BASF, reduced its stake through a discounted share sale.
Looking ahead, London’s market will remain sensitive to the interaction between oil prices, inflation and interest rates. Further stabilization in crude markets could support risk appetite, while renewed disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz could revive inflation concerns and expectations for tighter monetary policy. Investors will also monitor the Bank of England’s rate path, UK economic growth and global bond yields to assess whether Friday’s rebound develops into a broader recovery or remains a temporary pause following a significant weekly selloff.
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