The global artificial intelligence boom has become a significant driver of international trade, providing a boost to major Asian economies, including China and India. According to the International Monetary Fund, global trade grew by 8.3% between 2023 and 2025, while AI-related trade expanded at a much faster pace and became an important contributor to economic activity. However, the IMF cautions that alongside the opportunities, growing dependence on technology-related demand also creates risks for the global economy.

AI-Related Trade Reshapes the Global Growth Picture

Silvana Tenreyro, the IMF’s chief economist, said on October 13, during the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Bangkok, that strong AI demand had supported growth in China, India and other Asian economies. She noted that global trade would have expanded at a significantly slower pace without the sector’s contribution.

The figures illustrate the growing role of technology in international commerce. AI-related trade increased by 29% between 2023 and 2025, compared with growth of 8.3% across global trade as a whole. According to the IMF’s estimate, excluding AI-related trade would have reduced overall trade growth to just 4.6%.

The gap highlights how demand for computing components, semiconductors, servers and equipment needed to operate AI infrastructure is influencing the movement of goods between countries. Economies integrated into technology supply chains are benefiting from expanding demand, while countries with less exposure to the sector risk falling behind.

China and India Benefit, but Technology Dependence Creates Risks

China and India are among the economies benefiting from the expansion of AI-related activity, although the advantages come through different channels. China plays a major role in manufacturing and supplying technology products, while India also benefits from services activity and demand linked to its technology sector. Growing trade can support corporate revenues, investment and broader economic activity.

However, the IMF has highlighted the concentration of AI supply chains among a relatively small number of companies and countries. Such concentration can increase vulnerability to production disruptions, geopolitical tensions or a sharp change in demand. A correction in technology-company valuations could also affect investment and trade linked to the sector.

Debt and Inflation Limit Economic Flexibility

Alongside AI’s contribution to growth, the IMF remains concerned about elevated global debt and the risk that inflation will remain above central-bank targets. Tenreyro called on governments to reduce deficits through fiscal adjustments and urged central banks to maintain restrictive monetary policies, including raising interest rates where necessary.

For financial markets, the question is not simply whether AI demand will continue to grow, but whether substantial investment will deliver sustained improvements in productivity and revenue. Significant productivity gains could support economic growth while easing inflationary pressures. If results fall short of expectations, however, the contribution to growth could weaken while financing costs and investment expenses continue to weigh on businesses.

In the coming months, investors will monitor trade data, spending on AI infrastructure, inflation trends and policy decisions by governments and central banks. These indicators will help determine whether technology demand can continue to support global trade and Asian economies, or whether dependence on a single growth engine will become a more significant source of volatility.