Central-bank demand for gold remains a significant theme in global commodity markets, with estimates suggesting that China’s purchases may exceed the volumes disclosed in its official reserve data. Figures shared by The Kobeissi Letter and attributed to Goldman Sachs indicate that China acquired an estimated 25 tonnes through the London OTC market in August, compared with 20 tonnes officially reported. If sustained, strong official-sector demand could reinforce gold’s role as a reserve asset amid ongoing efforts by central banks to diversify their holdings.

China’s Estimated Gold Purchases Exceed Official Disclosures

According to the supplied chart, Goldman Sachs estimated that China purchased 48 tonnes of gold through the London OTC market in May 2026, followed by 40 tonnes in June, 35 tonnes in July and 25 tonnes in August. The corresponding officially reported purchases shown in the chart were 10, 15, 20 and 20 tonnes, respectively.

Across the four months, estimated OTC purchases totaled 148 tonnes, compared with 65 tonnes in officially reported purchases—a difference of 83 tonnes. This suggests that the estimated acquisition pace may have been considerably stronger than the official figures alone indicate. However, OTC-market estimates and reported central-bank reserve changes are not necessarily identical measures, and the difference should not automatically be interpreted as proof of undisclosed central-bank purchases. The figures remain estimates attributed to Goldman Sachs rather than independently confirmed transaction totals.

Why Central Banks Continue to Accumulate Gold

Gold can serve as a reserve-diversification asset because it is not a liability issued by another government and does not depend on a counterparty’s promise to pay. Central banks may increase gold holdings to diversify foreign-exchange reserves, manage geopolitical and sanctions-related risks, or reduce reliance on a narrow range of currencies and sovereign assets.

The supplied report estimates that central banks worldwide acquired 79 tonnes of gold in August, compared with a pre-2022 average of 17 tonnes. That represents approximately 365% above the cited historical average. While the figure points to substantial demand, the source does not provide a complete breakdown by country or establish how much of the estimated total was attributable to individual institutions. Broader conclusions should therefore be considered alongside published central-bank disclosures and World Gold Council data.

Implications for Gold Prices and Global Reserve Strategies

Persistent central-bank demand can provide structural support to the gold market by adding a source of buying that may differ from short-term investment flows. Unlike retail investors or exchange-traded fund holders, central banks often manage reserves over longer horizons. Nevertheless, gold prices are also influenced by real interest rates, the U.S. dollar, investor positioning, inflation expectations and geopolitical developments. Strong official-sector demand does not guarantee that prices will rise continuously.

For investors in Israel and internationally, central-bank gold accumulation is relevant to the broader discussion of reserve diversification and global financial stability. Changes in official demand can influence commodity-market sentiment and interact with movements in currencies, government-bond yields and other reserve assets. However, the strategic rationale for holding gold varies among institutions, and the supplied figures alone do not establish a coordinated shift away from any particular currency.

Going forward, market participants will monitor China’s official reserve disclosures, estimates of OTC-market activity, World Gold Council reports and changes in global central-bank holdings. Confirmation that purchases remain elevated would strengthen the case that official-sector demand is an important structural factor in the gold market. If estimated purchases diverge from reported reserve changes, analysts will need to examine differences in measurement, reporting periods and market coverage before drawing conclusions about the scale of China’s accumulation.