Target is approaching its fiscal second-quarter results with a substantially stronger market position than it had earlier in the year. Shares climbed nearly 1% Tuesday to $152.48 and have gained approximately 56% in 2026, leaving investors focused on whether the retailer can deliver results strong enough to support its extended rally.

For the quarter, analysts expect Target to report earnings of $2.34 per share, representing a 14% increase from the year-ago period. Revenue is projected to rise 3.5% to approximately $26.09 billion.

The comparison is helped by relatively easy year-ago figures, meaning investors are likely to look beyond the headline earnings growth and focus on the quality and durability of the underlying recovery.

Traffic and Same-Store Sales Point to a Recovery

One of the most important indicators will be Target’s same-store sales performance. Analysts expect comparable sales to increase 2.4%, following a 5.6% gain in the first quarter.

That first-quarter improvement ended a four-quarter decline in comparable sales and marked an important shift for a retailer that has faced several years of difficult operating conditions.

Store traffic data from Placer.ai also provide an encouraging signal. Traffic remained strong through May, June and July despite economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, with activity accelerating toward the end of July. The increase was potentially supported by Target’s weeklong back-to-school savings event, which could have helped drive both visits and consumer engagement.

The combination of stronger traffic and improving comparable sales suggests Target’s turnaround is beginning to gain traction. However, investors will need evidence that the improvement extends beyond promotional periods.

Turnaround Progress Raises the Expectations Risk

Target’s transformation strategy is centered on several initiatives, including same-day services, private-label products and last-mile logistics. Under new CEO Michael Fiddelke, the company has also increased its focus on grocery as a way to strengthen traffic and encourage more frequent customer visits.

Analysts have responded positively, with estimates and price targets broadly moving higher ahead of the earnings report. Telsey Advisory highlighted improving execution as a positive factor but cautioned that the turnaround may not progress in a straight line.

That warning is particularly relevant after the stock’s 56% advance this year. Deutsche Bank analysts are also watching whether improvements in stores and merchandising can translate into sustainable growth, while noting that much of the turnaround may already be reflected in the share price.

Going forward, Target’s earnings report will be judged against a much higher standard than its results from earlier in the recovery. Strong earnings, improving comparable sales and constructive guidance could reinforce the bullish narrative, while any indication that traffic or margins are losing momentum could trigger profit-taking. With expectations elevated, the key question is no longer simply whether Target is recovering, but whether its operational progress is strong enough to justify the valuation investors have assigned to the turnaround.