Apple is approaching one of its most consequential iPhone launches in years just days after John Ternus became the company’s chief executive. The potential introduction of a foldable iPhone, with Morgan Stanley projecting almost $14 billion in December-quarter sales, could provide a new source of growth while simultaneously testing how much premium consumers are willing to pay for a fundamentally different form factor.

A $14 Billion Opportunity for Apple’s New CEO

The September 9 Apple event carries unusual significance because it will be the first major product announcement under Ternus, who officially became CEO on September 1, replacing Tim Cook. Apple had announced the succession in April, with Cook moving to the role of executive chairman and Ternus joining the board.

According to Morgan Stanley analysis cited by TheStreet, Apple’s first foldable iPhone could generate almost $14 billion in revenue during the December quarter. The investment bank estimates that Apple could produce between 7 million and 8 million foldable iPhones during the second half of 2026 and potentially reach as many as 20 million units during the product’s first cycle.

The estimate is significant relative to Apple’s scale. The company generated $109.4 billion in fiscal third-quarter revenue, up 16% year over year, with record June-quarter revenue across the company, including iPhone, Mac and Services. A single new iPhone model contributing $14 billion in one quarter would therefore represent a material addition even for a company of Apple’s size.

The Foldable Is Also a Test of Apple’s Pricing Power

The potential revenue opportunity comes with a substantial pricing challenge. Reports indicate that Apple’s foldable iPhone could cost more than $2,000, putting it well above the company’s conventional flagship models and firmly in the premium segment of the smartphone market.

Morgan Stanley also expects higher NAND and DRAM costs to push prices for some Pro models more than $200 higher year over year. The combination of elevated component costs and a substantially more expensive foldable creates a broader test: whether Apple can raise average selling prices without materially weakening demand.

That question is increasingly relevant as the smartphone industry matures. Apple’s ability to maintain premium pricing has historically depended on a combination of brand strength, ecosystem integration and differentiated hardware. A foldable device gives the company an opportunity to offer a visibly different product rather than relying exclusively on incremental camera, processor or software improvements.

Supply Could Become the Constraint

Interestingly, the initial challenge may not be demand. Morgan Stanley expects supply constraints rather than a shortage of potential buyers to limit the number of foldable iPhones Apple can sell in the near term. Memory availability is one of the factors that could restrict production, while the complexity of manufacturing a new foldable design adds another layer of execution risk.

This creates a potentially unusual launch dynamic for Apple. Strong demand combined with constrained supply could support premium pricing and generate significant revenue per device, but persistent shortages could also limit the size of the initial installed base and delay the broader ecosystem effects that Apple typically seeks from major hardware launches.

The company is entering the market after years of experimentation by Samsung, Huawei and other manufacturers. Financial Times reporting notes that foldables remain a relatively small part of the global smartphone market, meaning Apple is attempting to expand a category that competitors have already spent years developing.

John Ternus Faces More Than a Product Launch

The significance of the September 9 event extends beyond the foldable itself. Ternus spent much of his Apple career in hardware engineering and was involved in major product lines including the iPad and AirPods, making the launch closely aligned with his technical background. Apple describes him as having led hardware engineering across multiple generations of iPhone, Mac and Apple Watch products.

The broader challenge is whether Ternus can translate hardware expertise into a new period of product-led growth while Apple also addresses artificial intelligence, rising component costs and increasingly complex global supply chains. The company’s recent financial performance provides a strong starting point, but investors are looking for evidence that Apple can generate another major product cycle rather than simply sustain the economics of its existing portfolio.

For investors in Israel and global markets, the key indicators following the launch will be pricing, preorder demand, production volumes, delivery times and the contribution of the foldable to fiscal fourth-quarter and December-quarter results. If Apple demonstrates that consumers will pay a significant premium for a new form factor, the device could become more than a high-end niche product and strengthen the company’s growth narrative under Ternus. If demand proves more price-sensitive, the launch could instead establish a ceiling for how far Apple can push iPhone prices in an increasingly mature smartphone market.