Circle Internet Group is preparing to report its third-quarter 2026 financial results, with market attention focused on the performance of its stablecoin business and expanding payment infrastructure.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is $801.61 million, indicating an 8.36% increase from the same period last year. The consensus EPS estimate is $0.40, up four cents over the past 60 days but implying a 37.5% year-over-year decline.

Circle has exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the previous four quarters, recording an average earnings surprise of 114.79%. Its latest results will test whether growth in USDC adoption and payment activity can offset pressure on profitability.

USDC Adoption and Payment Activity

Circle’s third-quarter performance is expected to reflect continued adoption of USDC, particularly among financial institutions, alongside higher payment activity.

USDC circulation averaged $76.5 billion in the second quarter, providing a substantial base for reserve income. Continued demand through September may have supported revenue, although softer interest rates could have reduced the benefit from reserve yields.

The growing proportion of USDC held directly on Circle’s platform may also have supported margins. Management previously expected its expanded distribution arrangement with Hyperliquid to begin contributing to results in the third quarter, potentially improving the economics of its stablecoin operations.

Circle Payments Network entered the period with improving momentum, reaching an annualized payment-volume run rate of $23 billion by July 31. The September launch of the Arc mainnet may also have contributed to milestone-based recognition of token presale revenue.

Revenue Mix and Expense Guidance

Circle did not provide specific guidance for the third quarter. However, its updated full-year outlook offers some indication of management’s expectations.

The company raised its 2026 other-revenue forecast to between $310 million and $330 million. It also projected a revenue-less-distribution-cost margin of 41.7% to 43.7%.

At the same time, adjusted operating expenses were expected to approach the upper end of the $570 million to $585 million range, potentially limiting earnings improvement.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for reserve income is $656.31 million, below the previous quarter’s $667.73 million. Other revenue is estimated at $140.77 million, substantially higher than the $33.58 million recorded in the prior quarter.

These estimates highlight the importance of Circle’s revenue diversification as reserve income faces potential pressure from changing interest-rate conditions.

Earnings Model Signals and Stock Considerations

The Zacks earnings model does not currently indicate a conclusive earnings beat for Circle. Although the company carries a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), its Earnings ESP stands at -17.97%.

Under the model, a positive Earnings ESP combined with a Zacks Rank of #1, #2 or #3 increases the likelihood of an earnings beat. Circle does not currently meet that combination because its Earnings ESP is negative.

Two other companies identified by the model as potential earnings candidates are Hut 8 Corp. and StoneCo Ltd.

Hut 8 has an Earnings ESP of +24.67% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to report its third-quarter 2026 results on November 4.

StoneCo has an Earnings ESP of +2.74%, also carrying a Zacks Rank #3. Its third-quarter results are scheduled for November 12.

What Investors Should Watch Next

Circle’s upcoming results will provide a clearer assessment of whether USDC adoption and payment-network expansion can sustain revenue growth while reserve income faces pressure. Investors will also be watching the contribution from new distribution arrangements, Arc-related revenue recognition, and the company’s operating expense trajectory.

The balance between expanding payment activity and the economics of reserve-backed revenue remains central to evaluating Circle’s earnings performance and its longer-term business outlook.