Oil prices surged more than 2% on Friday, closing October at their highest levels since late April as traders increasingly focused on the risk of further escalation in the Iran conflict. The latest move reflects growing concern that geopolitical tensions could disrupt supplies through the Middle East, particularly after an attack involving a tanker in the strategically important Strait of Hormuz.

Brent and WTI Post Strong Monthly Gains

Brent crude futures for December, which expired on Friday, settled $2.76 higher, or 2.4%, at $117.64 a barrel, after reaching an intraday high of $118. The more active January Brent contract gained $2.63 to settle at $113.43, reinforcing the strength of the latest rally.

The monthly performance was even more significant. Brent rose 13.6% in October, while West Texas Intermediate crude gained 15.2%. The scale of those increases highlights how quickly geopolitical developments have altered expectations for energy markets, particularly as traders assess the potential consequences of disruptions affecting major production and transportation routes.

Strait of Hormuz Becomes a Critical Supply Risk

The attack on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz provided a fresh reminder of the vulnerability of global oil transportation. The waterway is a critical route for international energy trade, meaning any sustained disruption could have consequences well beyond the immediate region.

The incident came as traders were already increasingly concerned about the possibility of an escalation in the Iran war. Market sensitivity to such developments has risen as investors assess not only potential production losses but also the risks surrounding the movement of crude and refined products through the region.

U.S. Security Measures Add to Market Anxiety

Geopolitical concerns were reinforced by the U.S. decision to order non-emergency personnel to leave Saudi Arabia because of security risks. The move added to uncertainty across an energy-producing region that remains central to global oil markets.

Analysts described the market as becoming increasingly concerned as the U.S. midterm elections approach. The political calendar is adding another layer of uncertainty to a market already attempting to assess the potential trajectory of the conflict and its implications for regional energy infrastructure.

What Oil Markets Will Watch Next

The next phase of the oil rally will depend heavily on whether current geopolitical risks result in actual and sustained supply disruptions. Traders will monitor developments around Iran, the Strait of Hormuz and regional security, while also assessing whether elevated prices begin to affect global demand.

For international markets, the combination of higher crude prices and geopolitical uncertainty could also create broader inflationary pressure, particularly if elevated energy costs persist. After Brent’s strongest monthly advance in October and prices reaching six-month highs, the ability of regional tensions to translate into physical supply disruptions will remain the central variable shaping oil prices in the weeks ahead.