Venezuela’s oil exports fell nearly 9% in September to 1.08 million barrels per day as a sharp increase in maritime freight costs reduced the economics of shipments and delayed cargo departures. The decline comes as the global oil market faces higher shipping costs and disruptions across key transport routes, raising questions about Venezuela’s ability to expand exports in line with its production ambitions.

Higher Freight Costs Pressure Trading Margins

International trading companies including Vitol and Trafigura have been pushing Venezuela’s state oil company PDVSA for larger discounts on crude. Higher tanker rates have squeezed trading margins, while route changes and shipping delays have added pressure to the export chain. As a result, transportation costs have become a more important factor in determining the price traders are willing to pay for Venezuelan crude.

The development highlights the growing importance of freight costs in the global oil market. When transporting a barrel over long distances becomes more expensive, the gap between the crude price and the total cost of delivering it to a refinery narrows. For Venezuela, that creates additional pressure on export revenue and could make rapid expansion of its oil business more difficult.

U.S. Shipments Rise as Europe and India Decline

The overall decline in exports masked a significant shift in shipment destinations. Exports to the U.S. increased to 629,000 barrels per day in September from 553,000 barrels per day in August. Shipments to India, however, fell to 253,000 barrels per day from 297,000, while exports to Europe dropped sharply to 86,000 barrels per day from 260,000.

Chevron, PDVSA’s main U.S. partner in joint ventures, maintained a relatively stable export rate of about 283,000 barrels per day. Trading companies moved 637,000 barrels per day, compared with 597,000 in August. Meanwhile, Venezuela’s oil production stood at about 1.2 million barrels per day in August, according to data reported to OPEC.

Production Expansion Also Depends on Infrastructure

The latest figures come as energy companies increase their interest in developing Venezuela’s oil reserves. Chevron has committed to investing more than $7 billion over five years and aims to more than double its Venezuelan production to about 600,000 barrels per day. Other companies, including Eni, GeoPark and Continental Resources, are examining new projects or expansions of existing operations.

Rystad Energy estimates that Venezuela’s oil production could reach 1.6 million barrels per day in 2028 and 1.8 million in 2030. However, the country had only two active drilling rigs in August. Estimates suggest that about 50 rigs would be required by 2028 and nearly 80 by 2030 to support the production targets. Port congestion and elevated freight costs could also continue to limit the pace of exports.

Going forward, the market will be watching tanker rates, the size of the discounts PDVSA must offer and the pace of shipments to Europe and India. Venezuela’s ability to increase drilling activity, improve export infrastructure and maintain economic incentives for international traders will remain central to determining the country’s production and export potential in the coming years.