Hyundai Closes the Gap With Ford

Hyundai is on track to surpass Ford in U.S. vehicle sales during the third quarter, marking a potential first for the South Korean automaker, according to a new forecast from Cox Automotive. Hyundai, including its luxury Genesis brand and corporate sibling Kia in the broader growth story, is expected to report 511,421 vehicle sales from July through September.

That would represent a 6.5% increase from the same period a year earlier. Ford, by comparison, is projected to sell 504,172 vehicles, representing a 7.1% year-over-year decline. If the forecasts are realized, Hyundai would become the third-largest automaker in the U.S. by sales behind General Motors and Toyota Motor.

U.S. Auto Market Shows Resilience

The expected shift in the sales ranking comes as the overall U.S. vehicle market performs somewhat better than previously anticipated. Cox Automotive raised its forecast for 2026 new-vehicle sales by approximately 2% to 16.1 million units.

Cox chief economist Jeremy Robb described the automotive market as resilient, noting that both new and used vehicle sales remain below year-ago levels but have not declined substantially. The revised forecast suggests that demand has held up better than earlier expectations despite ongoing pressure on consumers and elevated vehicle costs.

Hyundai Builds Momentum

Hyundai has been making significant progress in the U.S. market this year, expanding its presence as its sales momentum contrasts with weakness at Ford. The company’s performance is contributing to a narrowing gap between the two automakers at a time when product mix and availability are becoming increasingly important to consumers.

Ford has faced additional production challenges involving its F-Series pickup trucks following two supplier fires last year that disrupted manufacturing and sales. The impact on the company’s critical pickup business has added another challenge as Ford attempts to maintain its position in the U.S. market.

Hybrids Become an Important Differentiator

Cox analysts said Ford and General Motors have been experiencing slower sales partly because they have relatively limited hybrid offerings. Hybrid vehicles have gained attention in the U.S. as elevated gasoline prices have encouraged consumers to consider more fuel-efficient alternatives.

Toyota, a major force in hybrid vehicles, has also been narrowing its sales gap with General Motors, the current U.S. sales leader. The shift highlights how changes in consumer preferences and powertrain demand can influence the competitive landscape among major automakers.

Management Focuses on Products and Execution

Hyundai CEO José Muñoz previously told CNBC that overtaking Ford was not the company’s objective. Instead, he attributed the potential change in ranking to Hyundai’s continued emphasis on its products and execution.

That distinction could become increasingly relevant if Hyundai sustains its momentum. A single quarter would not by itself establish a permanent change in the U.S. competitive hierarchy, but the latest forecast provides another indication of the progress Hyundai has made in the market.

What Investors May Watch Next

The final third-quarter sales figures will determine whether Hyundai actually surpasses Ford, while subsequent quarters will show whether the shift can be sustained. Investors may monitor vehicle volumes, hybrid demand, production conditions and model-level performance across the major automakers. The broader U.S. market forecast will also remain important as manufacturers navigate changing consumer preferences and powertrain demand.