President Donald Trump’s proposed $100,000 fee for newly hired H-1B workers recruited from outside the United States marks one of the most aggressive moves yet in the administration’s effort to curb skilled immigration. While framed as a measure to protect domestic wages and discourage abuse of the visa system, the policy has far-reaching implications for global technology staffing, particularly for Indian IT services firms that rely heavily on cross-border talent mobility.

The announcement lands at a time when U.S. companies are already reassessing workforce strategies amid rising geopolitical tensions, AI-driven automation, and shifting cost structures. Against this backdrop, the fee threatens to materially alter hiring economics across the technology and consulting sectors.

Disproportionate Impact on IT Outsourcing Leaders

A detailed analysis of visa approvals shows that the financial burden would fall most heavily on large multinational staffing firms acting as intermediaries for U.S. clients. Companies such as Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys, and Cognizant have historically sourced the majority of their new H-1B hires from abroad rather than from foreign graduates already in the U.S.

Data covering the four years through mid-2024 suggests that nearly 90% of new H-1B workers hired by these firms would have been subject to the proposed fee. For Infosys alone, more than 10,000 workers would have triggered visa charges exceeding $1 billion over that period. Tata and Cognizant would each face hundreds of millions of dollars in additional costs. Such figures dwarf existing compliance expenses and threaten to compress margins in an industry already facing pricing pressure from clients.

Policy Intent Versus Market Reality

Supporters of the fee argue it will discourage companies from overusing the H-1B program and push employers toward higher-skilled, higher-paid candidates. The White House has framed the measure as a way to restore integrity to a lottery system that saw registrations balloon to more than 750,000 in a single fiscal year.

However, critics counter that H-1B workers are already required to earn prevailing wages and often command salaries above the U.S. median. From this perspective, the fee functions less as a quality filter and more as a blunt cost barrier, one that disproportionately penalizes firms with globally distributed talent models rather than domestic competitors.

Offshoring Pressures Intensify

Even before the fee’s potential implementation, visa demand had begun to cool. Industry advisers report that companies are increasingly opting to shift work offshore rather than absorb sharply higher immigration costs. India, the primary source of H-1B talent, stands to benefit from increased investment as U.S. firms expand overseas delivery centers.

This trend aligns with broader structural forces. Advances in cloud infrastructure, remote collaboration, and AI-enabled development tools have reduced the need for physical proximity, making offshore execution more viable than ever. For global firms, the economic calculus is becoming clearer: if access to U.S. visas is prohibitively expensive, talent will simply remain where it is.

Uncertainty for Employers and Workers

Legal challenges are already underway, with business groups seeking to block or delay the fee. Yet many employers are not waiting for court outcomes before adjusting hiring plans. Analysts expect a sharp decline in visa lottery registrations next year, potentially by as much as 30% to 50%, as firms reassess risk and cost.

For workers, particularly highly skilled professionals overseas, the implications are more personal. Reduced visa demand could limit pathways to U.S. careers, even as global demand for advanced technical skills continues to rise.

Looking ahead, the next H-1B lottery cycle will serve as an early test of whether the policy achieves its stated goal of elevating skill levels or simply accelerates the globalization of tech work beyond U.S. borders.