Oil prices rebounded sharply on Monday as uncertainty surrounding a potential agreement between the United States and Iran revived concerns over disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. West Texas Intermediate crude settled around $82.13 per barrel, while Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose to $87.72, reversing part of the sharp decline recorded last week.

The move highlights how quickly energy markets are responding to changing expectations around the geopolitical situation. Oil prices had fallen more than 7% last week after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that Washington and Tehran could reach an agreement allowing greater freedom of movement for commercial shipping through the strategic waterway.

Hormuz Negotiations Remain the Central Market Variable

Investor confidence in an imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz weakened after U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington was only “semi-negotiating” with Tehran. Trump indicated that the United States would continue using its naval blockade to pressure Iran rather than immediately pursuing another wave of airstrikes, adding uncertainty to the prospects for a diplomatic resolution.

Iran has also maintained conditions of its own. Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said the United States would need to lift its blockade before Tehran would agree to fully reopen the strait. The conflicting positions have made the timing of any agreement difficult to assess, leaving energy markets highly sensitive to further diplomatic or military developments.

Supply Risks Extend Beyond the Immediate Price Reaction

The importance of Hormuz extends beyond the daily movement in crude prices. The waterway is a critical transit route for international energy supplies, meaning prolonged restrictions can affect shipping costs, refinery operations and the availability of crude in major importing markets. Any sustained disruption could therefore create broader inflationary pressure if higher transportation and energy costs pass through to consumers and businesses.

The situation is further complicated by the condition of U.S. emergency oil inventories. Stocks in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve have fallen below 300 million barrels, reaching their lowest level since January 1983, according to the information provided. A smaller emergency stockpile potentially reduces the scale of the buffer available to policymakers if supply disruptions persist or intensify.

Markets Reassess the Risk Premium in Crude

The latest rebound demonstrates that the geopolitical risk premium in crude oil has not disappeared. Prices had initially responded positively to expectations of an agreement, but the absence of a finalized arrangement has encouraged traders to reassess the probability of a prolonged disruption. For energy markets, the distinction between an announced diplomatic framework and actual freedom of navigation remains significant.

The reversal also matters for global inflation and monetary policy. Higher crude prices can raise headline inflation expectations and increase costs across transportation, manufacturing and consumer industries. At the same time, sustained energy volatility could complicate central-bank decisions by creating a tension between weaker economic activity and renewed price pressures.

Looking ahead, markets will closely monitor any changes in U.S.-Iran negotiations, the status of the naval blockade and the practical conditions governing commercial shipping through Hormuz. A credible agreement that restores sustained freedom of navigation could reduce the geopolitical premium in crude, while continued disagreement or renewed attacks on shipping could place further upward pressure on prices. The trajectory of U.S. petroleum inventories, global tanker movements and developments across the broader Middle East will remain important indicators for assessing whether the latest oil rebound represents a temporary reaction or the beginning of a more persistent repricing of supply risk.