WTI crude futures traded little changed near the $100 per barrel mark on Thursday as investors balanced cautious optimism surrounding shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz against ongoing global supply concerns.
Oil markets remained highly sensitive to geopolitical developments involving Iran, the United States, and China as traders searched for signals that energy flows through the region could gradually normalize.
Despite the stabilization, crude prices remain sharply elevated compared with earlier this year due to prolonged supply disruptions tied to the Middle East conflict.

Hormuz Shipping Activity Draws Attention

Reports from Iran suggested that roughly 30 vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz in recent hours, indicating that limited shipping activity may be resuming through the critical energy corridor.
Iran also reportedly began permitting transit for certain Chinese vessels, a development closely watched by global energy traders given China’s importance as one of the world’s largest energy consumers.
The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most strategically important oil transit routes globally, with a substantial portion of international crude oil and liquefied natural gas shipments normally passing through the waterway.
Even partial reopening efforts have the potential to influence global energy pricing and supply expectations.

US and China Discuss Energy Flows

The ongoing summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping has also become a central focus for energy markets.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged China to use its influence with Iran to help facilitate a broader reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
According to statements from the White House, Xi also expressed interest in increasing Chinese purchases of US crude oil, signaling that energy cooperation may become part of broader diplomatic discussions between the two countries.
Markets are closely monitoring whether the summit could contribute to greater geopolitical stability and improved global energy flows.

IEA Warns of Prolonged Supply Deficit

The International Energy Agency warned that the global oil market is likely to remain significantly undersupplied for several more months even if hostilities ease in the near future.
The agency reported that crude oil and refined fuel shipments through the Strait of Hormuz fell by nearly 6 million barrels per day during the first quarter.
Analysts said the prolonged reduction in exports has already tightened global inventories and increased pressure across energy supply chains.
The IEA indicated that supply-demand imbalances may persist until at least October due to disrupted shipping routes, lower production levels, and delayed inventory rebuilding.

Saudi Production Adds to Supply Concerns

Additional concerns emerged after Saudi Arabia reportedly informed OPEC that its oil production had declined to the lowest level since 1990.
The decline further reinforced fears that the global oil market may struggle to replace lost supply while geopolitical instability continues affecting production and transportation infrastructure.
Analysts noted that reduced Saudi output limits one of the market’s most important stabilizing forces during periods of supply disruption.
The combination of lower production and restricted shipping capacity has contributed to elevated volatility across global energy markets.

Energy Prices Continue Driving Inflation Risks

Persistently high oil prices remain a major concern for global financial markets and central banks.
Elevated fuel costs continue feeding into inflation pressures worldwide, increasing transportation expenses, utility costs, and broader consumer prices.
Central banks, including the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan, are increasingly monitoring energy-driven inflation risks as policymakers reassess future interest rate decisions.
Financial markets remain highly sensitive to any geopolitical developments that could either ease or intensify pressure on global energy supplies.

Markets Remain Focused on Geopolitical Stability

For now, investors continue balancing cautious optimism surrounding diplomatic discussions with concerns that the conflict could still escalate further.
While limited shipping activity through Hormuz offered some reassurance, analysts warned that the situation remains fragile and highly unpredictable.
Energy traders are expected to remain focused on developments involving US-Iran negotiations, Chinese diplomatic involvement, OPEC production trends, and future shipping activity through the Persian Gulf.