Global oil-market disruptions could persist well beyond 2026 as shipping bottlenecks, reduced refinery output and depleted inventories create a supply deficit that will take time to reverse. Industry executives speaking in London said the physical damage to global energy flows has created conditions that could keep oil prices elevated even if immediate supply disruptions begin to ease.

Inventory Rebuilding Could Take Two Years

The scale of the challenge was highlighted by Saudi Aramco’s CEO, who said replenishing global oil inventories could take up to two years. Inventory draws are particularly significant because restoring stockpiles requires sustained periods in which production and available supply exceed consumption, rather than simply returning disrupted facilities and shipping routes to normal operations.

The prolonged rebuilding process could therefore keep the physical oil market relatively tight even after the most severe disruptions have passed. For refiners, industrial users and other energy-intensive businesses, this creates greater uncertainty over the availability and cost of crude and refined fuels.

Shipping and Refinery Disruptions Amplify the Supply Shock

The market has been affected by several disruptions occurring simultaneously. Following the start of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran at the end of February, Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy shipping routes. Restrictions around the waterway disrupted the movement of crude and refined products through a corridor that plays a critical role in global energy trade.

At the same time, deep reductions in refinery output have compounded the pressure. Kuwait Petroleum’s CEO said approximately 6 million barrels per day of refined-products supply is missing, underscoring that the market challenge extends beyond crude production. Refinery capacity is essential for converting crude into fuels used by transportation, industry and power markets.

Oil Demand Recovery May Take Longer

While supply constraints remain severe, executives also offered a more cautious assessment of future demand. The chair of ConocoPhillips said global oil demand may not recover until 2028 or 2029, indicating that the market could face a prolonged period in which disrupted supply and subdued consumption expectations develop alongside each other.

That dynamic could create a complicated pricing environment. Persistent supply shortages can support prices, while weaker economic activity or slower demand growth can limit the upside. The balance will depend on how quickly inventories are rebuilt, how much refining capacity returns and whether global consumption strengthens as economies adjust to higher energy costs.

Energy Markets Face a Longer Adjustment Period

For global investors, the latest warnings suggest that oil-market normalization may be measured in years rather than months. Inventory levels, refinery availability, shipping conditions and demand growth will be critical indicators of whether the physical market is moving toward balance.

The prolonged disruption also carries broader implications for inflation, transportation costs and monetary policy. If elevated energy prices persist, they could complicate efforts by central banks to contain inflation, while sustained weakness in demand could create pressure elsewhere in the global economy. The coming quarters will therefore depend on whether supply infrastructure can recover faster than inventories are depleted, making the pace of normalization across crude and refined-product markets a central issue for investors.