JPMorgan Chase is entering the final part of the third quarter with a stronger outlook for investment banking and markets revenue than several major Wall Street rivals. Co-President Doug Petno said the bank expects fees in both businesses to increase by the mid-to-high teens year over year, while simultaneously warning that the current cycle is beginning to feel unusually strong.

JPMorgan Sees Strong Investment Banking Momentum

Petno, who also serves as chief executive of JPMorgan’s Commercial & Investment Bank, said clients are continuing to navigate market volatility and economic uncertainty while maintaining activity across a broad range of transactions. He expects investment banking fees and markets revenue to rise in the mid-to-high teens during the third quarter compared with the same period last year.

The guidance follows an already strong second quarter. JPMorgan reported a 30% increase in investment banking fees and a 35% increase in markets revenue during the period. The latest forecast suggests that dealmaking and trading activity have remained resilient into the second half of the year despite a more complicated geopolitical and macroeconomic backdrop.

A Sharper Divide Across Wall Street

JPMorgan’s outlook stands out against more cautious expectations from some competitors. Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan has projected a decline of roughly 10% in third-quarter investment banking revenue, while other large banks have pointed toward more modest growth in dealmaking and trading.

The divergence reflects the increasingly concentrated nature of Wall Street activity. The largest financial institutions have captured a significant share of major mergers, capital-markets transactions and institutional trading business, while smaller firms remain more exposed to weaker private-equity activity and uneven deal pipelines.

For JPMorgan, scale and a broad corporate and institutional client base provide exposure to multiple sources of fee revenue. That diversification can help offset weakness in any individual product, but it does not eliminate sensitivity to market cycles.

When Strong Conditions Become a Warning Signal

Petno’s warning that the current environment feels almost “too good” introduces a more cautious element into an otherwise positive outlook. The comment reflects the possibility that unusually strong transaction volumes, elevated market activity and resilient corporate demand may not continue at the same pace indefinitely.

He also pointed to powerful longer-term trends that could support activity even if cyclical conditions moderate. Artificial intelligence remains a major driver of corporate investment and potential capital-markets activity, although bankers are closely watching deal flow following a slowdown that emerged from mid-August and the reversal of some AI-related market enthusiasm in July.

Investors will now be watching JPMorgan’s third-quarter results for evidence that the strong fee environment is translating into sustainable revenue growth rather than representing a temporary peak in the cycle. The trajectory of IPOs, M&A activity, trading volumes and corporate financing demand will be particularly important as markets move toward the final quarter of 2026.