Gold prices steadied on Monday, hovering near $4,000 per ounce, as investors recalibrated expectations for U.S. monetary policy and digested easing geopolitical tensions following a new U.S.-China trade agreement. While the Federal Reserve’s latest rate cut was widely anticipated, Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks signaling a potential pause in the easing cycle weighed on bullion, traditionally seen as a hedge against lower interest rates and macro uncertainty.

Gold last traded at $4,003.51 per ounce on November 3, down 0.02% from the prior session. Despite the minor dip, the metal remains up 1.03% over the past month and an impressive 46.33% year-over-year, according to CFD market data. Gold reached an all-time high of $4,381.58 in October 2025 before retreating as monetary and geopolitical conditions shifted.

Fed Commentary Shifts Market Sentiment

Last week’s quarter-point rate cut marked a continuation of the Fed’s cautious easing strategy amid limited access to fresh economic data due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. Powell, however, downplayed expectations for another cut in December, noting that policymakers would likely need clearer visibility on inflation and employment before moving again.

“Market participants had priced in an aggressive easing path through early 2026,” said one New York-based precious metals strategist. “Powell’s message effectively told traders to slow down those expectations.”

Indeed, futures markets now price in about a 70% probability of another rate reduction in December, sharply lower than the 90% odds seen before Powell’s comments. The shift has buoyed Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar — both of which tend to pressure gold by raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

Trade Truce Dims Safe-Haven Appeal

The new U.S.-China trade accord, announced last week in Seoul, further reduced the immediate appetite for safe-haven assets. Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping agreed to extend tariff suspensions, ease export restrictions, and lower trade barriers across key sectors including rare earths, soybeans, and industrial goods.

While markets welcomed the breakthrough, analysts cautioned that the truce remains largely symbolic. Still, even modest improvement in trade relations has historically tempered gold demand, particularly from institutional investors using the metal as a hedge against geopolitical risk.

“The safe-haven premium that lifted gold above $4,300 last month is fading,” said Alistair Hewitt, a commodities strategist in London. “We’re now entering a consolidation phase where macro drivers — particularly U.S. rate expectations — will dominate price action.”

China’s Policy Move Adds to Headwinds

Adding further pressure, China eliminated a long-standing tax incentive on gold sales, a move aimed at tightening fiscal policy and curbing speculative demand. The change is expected to raise retail prices for jewelry and investment bars, potentially weighing on consumption in the world’s largest physical gold market.

“China’s retail demand has been a key stabilizer for gold over the past year,” said Hewitt. “Removing that incentive could slow imports and temper the next leg of the rally.”

What Comes Next for Gold

With rate-cut expectations receding and geopolitical risk easing, gold’s near-term trajectory may depend on incoming inflation and consumer sentiment data — both of which remain limited due to the U.S. data blackout. Analysts see support near $3,950 and resistance around $4,150, suggesting a narrow trading range until clearer signals emerge from the Fed or major central banks.

Still, with prices nearly 50% higher than a year ago, investors remain reluctant to call an end to gold’s broader bull market. As one strategist put it, “As long as real yields stay subdued and uncertainty lingers, gold will continue to shine — even if it’s taking a breather.”