The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates at its September meeting, seeking to contain inflationary pressures linked to the conflict with Iran, but policymakers appear reluctant to signal further increases. The decision comes after the ECB raised rates in June for the first time in almost three years, as higher energy prices continue to create additional inflation risks across the euro zone.

ECB Moves Toward Another September Rate Increase

ECB policymakers believe conditions warrant another rate increase in September, which would lift the deposit rate from 2.25% to 2.50%. Inflation in the euro zone is approaching 3%, while the conflict with Iran remains ongoing and the European economy is showing signs of resilience.

Higher natural-gas and fuel prices are a key factor behind the decision. The euro zone remains heavily dependent on imported energy, meaning a prolonged increase in commodity prices could feed into transportation, manufacturing and service costs and broaden price pressures beyond the energy sector itself.

The ECB raised rates in June partly to prevent the current energy shock from spreading more widely through the economy, similar to the inflationary surge that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. However, policymakers still assess medium-term inflation expectations as remaining close to the ECB’s 2% target.

Why Is the ECB Reluctant to Signal Further Rate Hikes?

Despite expectations for a September increase, policymakers reportedly have limited appetite to signal continued monetary tightening. One reason is that inflation driven by higher energy prices could prove temporary, while additional rate increases could weigh on demand and economic growth.

Recent data point to a relatively resilient European economy. Business activity in the euro zone accelerated in August, with the composite purchasing managers’ index rising to 52.1 from 52.0 in July. At the same time, the manufacturing gauge reached a 54-month high, while new orders increased at their fastest pace in more than three years.

However, inflation remains significantly above the ECB’s 2% target. This leaves the central bank facing a difficult balance between preventing price pressures from becoming entrenched and avoiding excessive restrictions on economic activity.

Energy Prices and Iran Conflict Remain Central to Inflation Outlook

Developments surrounding the conflict with Iran remain an important factor in Europe’s inflation outlook. Higher oil, gas and fuel prices could increase costs for households and businesses and create additional pressure on consumer-price measures in the coming months.

In forecasts published by the ECB in June, the central bank projected average inflation of 3.0% in 2026, 2.3% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028. At the same time, its growth outlook was revised lower, with average growth projected at 0.8% in 2026, 1.2% in 2027 and 1.5% in 2028.

For investors in Israel and international markets, ECB policy can influence the euro, European bond yields, capital flows and the valuation of global assets. Interest-rate differentials between Europe and the United States may also affect foreign-exchange markets and broader market volatility.

Going forward, investors will focus on August inflation data, energy prices and developments surrounding the conflict with Iran ahead of the ECB’s September 9–10 meeting. While a rate increase may already be largely reflected in market pricing, the key question will be whether policymakers maintain a cautious approach after the hike or leave the door open to another round of monetary tightening.