Morgan Stanley Sees a Narrow Window for Investors

SpaceX shares moved sharply higher after Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas renewed his bullish view on the company, arguing that the stock could offer an unusually attractive entry point ahead of several major developments.

In a research note titled “SPCX $159: Cheap and Getting Cheaper,” Jonas maintained his Outperform rating and $300 price target. He argued that the next several weeks, particularly the period leading into Starship Flight 15, could provide an important window for investors evaluating the company’s long-term growth potential.

Shares rose approximately 5% in early trading following the report.

Starship Progress Adds a Potential Catalyst

The immediate focus is on Starship. SpaceX’s previous Flight 14 marked an important technical milestone, with the spacecraft reaching low Earth orbit and deploying Starlink satellites during the mission.

Jonas expects continued progress with Starship to influence how investors assess SpaceX’s broader commercial potential. The launch program remains a technically complex part of the company’s operations, and developments in testing could affect expectations surrounding future launch capabilities and economics.

For investors, the significance extends beyond individual launches. Progress toward a more capable and scalable launch system could influence the valuation assigned to SpaceX’s space-related operations.

AI Could Become a Larger Part of the Valuation

One of the more significant elements of Jonas’s thesis is that SpaceX should not be valued solely through its existing space and connectivity businesses. He expects developments over the coming months to highlight the company’s potential role in artificial intelligence and advanced computing.

That opportunity could include compute agreements, chipmaking and other AI-related initiatives. Jonas argues that investors may currently be underestimating these activities, creating the possibility for both earnings growth and a higher valuation multiple if the company’s AI strategy becomes clearer.

The Challenge of Valuing a Complex Business

Jonas also points to the difficulty of analyzing SpaceX through a single valuation framework. Looking only at AI computing economics or Starlink’s telecommunications characteristics could make the company appear relatively expensive, but such approaches may not fully account for the economics of the launch business.

This supports a sum-of-the-parts approach in which SpaceX’s space and connectivity operations are valued separately while its emerging AI opportunity receives additional consideration.

The challenge for investors is determining how much value should be assigned to businesses and technologies that are still developing rather than generating established earnings at scale.

Neocloud Contracts and AI Pricing in Focus

Additional AI infrastructure contracts could provide another important signal. Jonas specifically points to potential neocloud agreements maintaining pricing in the range of $30 to $50 per watt as an upside-oriented catalyst.

If such contracts materialize alongside new AI product releases and further Starship progress, investors could gain more visibility into the economics of SpaceX’s emerging computing activities.

What Investors Should Watch Next

The SpaceX investment story is increasingly becoming broader than rockets and satellite connectivity. Starship development, AI product releases, compute contracts, chipmaking initiatives and the economics of emerging neocloud relationships could all influence how the market values the company.

Jonas’s $300 price target represents his assessment rather than a guaranteed outcome, and the catalysts he identifies remain dependent on execution. The next few months could therefore be important in determining whether SpaceX’s AI ambitions can translate into measurable earnings potential and whether Starship progress can support a broader reassessment of the company’s valuation.