A Streak Broken: Bitcoin’s October “Luck” Runs Out

After years of treating October as a reliably bullish month, Bitcoin’s long-standing winning streak has finally come to an end. The world’s largest cryptocurrency is on track for a 5% monthly loss, a sharp reversal from its historical trend that saw October deliver gains every year since 2018. The move reflects renewed investor caution, geopolitical headwinds, and shifting macroeconomic signals.

Bitcoin’s price, which had surged to a record above $126,000 earlier in the month, tumbled to a low near $104,782 following an abrupt liquidation wave between October 10 and 11. The drop was triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s 100% tariff announcement on Chinese imports and threats of new export controls on key software technologies—moves that rattled financial markets globally.

“This washout on the 10th really reminded people that this asset class remains extremely narrow,” said Adam McCarthy, senior research analyst at digital market data provider Kaiko. “Even the biggest names, like Bitcoin and Ether, can still experience 10% drawdowns in under 20 minutes.”

Macro Pressures and Market Jitters

October’s turbulence reflected the wider uncertainty gripping financial markets. The Federal Reserve’s decision to temper expectations for additional rate cuts, combined with a prolonged government shutdown, has left traders with fewer economic indicators to guide decisions. That void has heightened volatility across assets—from equities to commodities and cryptocurrencies.

“Cryptocurrencies entered October tracking gold and stocks near record highs,” McCarthy noted. “But as uncertainty hit for the first time in months, investors didn’t rotate back into Bitcoin en masse. That’s a sign of more selective, risk-off behavior.”

The DXY Dollar Index climbed steadily through the month, amplifying pressure on risk assets. Meanwhile, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon added to the cautious mood, warning of a potential major correction in U.S. equities within the next two years. Bitcoin, often positioned as both an inflation hedge and speculative asset, found itself squeezed between rising caution in traditional markets and lingering regulatory ambiguity abroad.

Regulatory Tailwinds Temper the Loss

Despite the October setback, Bitcoin remains up over 16% for 2025, supported by a friendlier U.S. regulatory tone and renewed institutional participation. The Trump administration’s pro-crypto posture—marked by the dismissal of several lawsuits against major exchanges and the promise of specialized digital asset frameworks—has given the sector an aura of legitimacy not seen in years.

Analysts also note that the asset’s long-term fundamentals remain strong. Institutional demand for Bitcoin-linked exchange-traded products continues to rise, while growing adoption among payment processors and cross-border platforms underpins confidence in the digital asset’s structural resilience.

Still, the month’s volatility served as a reality check for traders who had grown accustomed to Bitcoin’s October momentum. “The streak may be broken,” said McCarthy, “but the broader story remains one of normalization. Bitcoin is maturing—and with that comes more sensitivity to macro signals and market structure.”

Looking Ahead: Consolidation Before the Next Breakout?

As markets turn toward November, Bitcoin appears to be stabilizing near the $108,000–$110,000 range, with analysts expecting a period of consolidation. The Fed’s December meeting, along with ongoing global trade negotiations, could set the tone for crypto markets into year-end.

“Bitcoin’s setback doesn’t change its long-term narrative,” said one digital asset strategist. “What it does is remind investors that volatility is part of the maturation process. After all, every cycle resets before it reaccelerates.”