Global business leaders are warning that the artificial intelligence (AI) investment boom may be outpacing real returns. Speaking at the Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit in Hong Kong, HSBC CEO Georges Elhedery and General Atlantic CEO William Ford said companies are pouring billions into AI infrastructure even though profits from these technologies remain years away.

Their comments come as Big Tech firms ramp up record-breaking capital expenditures to secure dominance in the fast-growing AI industry. While the technology is expected to reshape entire sectors, many experts now worry that corporate spending is being driven more by hype than by measurable results.

HSBC CEO Warns AI Spending Is “Hard to Justify”

Elhedery cautioned that AI’s financial promise is still unproven, even as investment in chips, data centers, and computing power surges. “Consumers are not yet ready to pay for it,” he said. “We’ll start seeing real revenue benefits probably later than investors expect.”

Recent data supports that concern. Morgan Stanley estimates that global data center capacity will grow sixfold by 2028, costing as much as $3 trillion. A separate report from McKinsey projects that AI-ready data centers could require up to $5.2 trillion in capital spending by 2030, compared with just $1.5 trillion for traditional IT infrastructure.

According to Elhedery, these figures highlight the growing gap between capital investment and revenue generation. Businesses, he said, will likely remain cautious as AI adoption expands slowly and productivity benefits emerge over several years.

General Atlantic: The AI Boom Will Take Decades to Mature

General Atlantic’s William Ford echoed those sentiments, saying that while AI will ultimately transform industries, the financial payoff could take 10 to 20 years. “You’re going to create a whole new set of industries,” he said, “but that’s a long-term play.”

He compared the current wave of AI investment to historical innovations like railroads and electricity, which revolutionized economies but took decades to deliver consistent returns. Ford added that today’s AI surge risks overinvestment and “irrational exuberance”—a term used to describe market bubbles fueled by unrealistic optimism.

Still, Ford acknowledged that the sector’s massive spending reflects confidence in AI’s transformative power. “You need to pay upfront for the opportunity that’s going to come later,” he said.

Big Tech’s Spending Spree Raises Concerns

The numbers are staggering. Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon now expect a combined $380 billion in AI-related capital spending this year, according to company guidance. Meanwhile, OpenAI—creator of ChatGPT—has unveiled $1 trillion worth of infrastructure deals with partners such as Nvidia, Oracle, and Broadcom.

This spending frenzy underscores how AI has become the next big battleground for corporate dominance, but analysts warn that not all players will see equal returns. “There’s a real risk of misallocation of capital and overvaluation,” Ford said. “It’s very hard to predict winners and losers in the early stages.”

The Road Ahead: Promise or Bubble?

While both executives agree that AI will reshape global industries, they stress the need for financial discipline and realistic expectations. Companies that invest too aggressively could face years of losses before the technology delivers meaningful returns.

For investors, the key will be separating long-term innovation from short-term hype. The AI revolution is real—but like past technology booms, it may take time before today’s massive spending turns into tomorrow’s profits.