U.S. President Donald Trump recently claimed that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has pledged to stop buying Russian oil. The statement was made during a public event on October 15, 2025, in which Trump described the commitment as “a major step” in efforts to limit Russia’s revenue from energy exports, which fund its military operations in Ukraine.

Geopolitical and Economic Context

According to Trump, the cessation of Russian oil imports by India would significantly tighten the global energy market, reducing Moscow’s revenue streams. India is currently the second-largest importer of Russian crude, after China, and has been purchasing oil at discounted rates following Western sanctions on Russia. Analysts note that any reduction in imports from India could have ripple effects across global oil markets, potentially creating space for other buyers, including China, to secure discounted crude.

Indian Government’s Position

The Indian Ministry of External Affairs has denied any awareness of such a conversation between the two leaders. Officials emphasized that India’s energy policies prioritize stability and supply security, particularly as domestic fuel needs grow and energy prices fluctuate. Contracts for Russian crude are mostly long-term term contracts, meaning any changes in supply will likely occur gradually, rather than immediately.

Partial Reductions Already Underway

Some reports indicate that Indian refiners are beginning to reduce spot-market purchases of Russian oil by approximately half, though these reductions are small compared to the total volumes imported. Analysts expect noticeable changes in shipments to appear only by December 2025 or early 2026, given contractual obligations and logistics.

Western governments, including the United States and European Union, have been pressuring Asian economies to reduce purchases of Russian energy to curtail funding for the Ukraine conflict. Recent sanctions on certain Indian and Chinese refineries indicate growing international scrutiny, although the enforcement and impact of these measures vary.

Implications for Global Oil Markets

If India were to significantly scale back Russian imports, the move would mark a major geopolitical shift. Energy markets could see price volatility as buyers adjust to changes in supply flows. Analysts also suggest that Russia may offer larger discounts to other buyers, particularly China, to maintain export volumes and offset losses from India’s reductions.

Outlook and Uncertainties

The situation remains fluid. While Trump’s statements highlight U.S. expectations, official Indian confirmation is lacking, making it unclear how quickly any policy adjustments would take effect. Market watchers will be closely monitoring import patterns, refinery activity, and official communications from both New Delhi and Moscow to gauge the real impact of this potential energy pivot.