U.S. supply chains are entering a period of quiet instability, with a mounting exodus of trucking firms now emerging as a critical pressure point for ocean logistics. While declining international container volumes have temporarily eased congestion at ports and rail ramps, logistics specialists warn that structural capacity declines in trucking could create severe bottlenecks as early as 2026 — particularly if demand rebounds. With port operations currently stable across all major U.S. coasts, the risk is not today’s volumes, but the future availability of drivers needed to move cargo inland.

A Calm Surface Masks Deepening Structural Risks

According to the latest ITS Logistics Port Rail/Ramp Freight Index, U.S. terminals, ocean carriers and rail ramps continue to operate at “normal” levels. The downturn in import and export volumes has offered breathing room after two years of global supply chain whiplash. Yet, the same report underscores that the industry is entering a transition period marked by shrinking trucking capacity, rising operating costs and an uncertain regulatory backdrop.

The freight recession — one of the longest in modern U.S. logistics — has pushed rates to unprofitable levels for thousands of small and mid-sized carriers. These companies, already contending with higher diesel prices, insurance costs, equipment financing and labor shortages, have been shutting down at an accelerated pace. Capacity that was abundant in 2022 is now quietly evaporating, posing downstream risks for ocean freight when the cycle turns.

Regulatory Pressures Add Fuel to the Fire

Beyond market economics, new federal enforcement targeting non-domiciled CDL holders and English language proficiency could remove as many as 600,000 drivers from the U.S. trucking ecosystem. Such a reduction would represent one of the largest single-year contractions in the history of American freight.

ITS Logistics warns that this initiative, combined with the ongoing carrier collapse, could create a “severe structural imbalance” between available drivers and required freight capacity. The Pacific Coast has already seen a jump in trucking activity in November, as shippers attempt to secure capacity before potential shortages materialize. This behavioral shift — shippers front-loading demand or overbooking capacity — is often an early signal of market tightening.

A Potential Turning Point for 2026

If trucking capacity continues to contract while ocean volumes begin their next cyclical recovery, the U.S. could face a scenario where ports are fully operational but freight cannot be moved inland at necessary speed. That mismatch would mirror past congestion crises but with a different cause: not too much freight, but too few trucks.

For shippers, the emerging challenge is strategic planning. Companies heavily dependent on long-haul motor carriers may need to evaluate diversification into intermodal, regional carriers, or long-term dedicated capacity agreements. Logistics providers, meanwhile, are preparing for a tightening environment where driver availability — not port throughput — becomes the primary determinant of supply chain fluidity.

Looking Ahead

With 2026 highlighted as a potential inflection point, the next 12 months will determine whether today’s manageable disruptions evolve into systemic constraints. Monitoring regulatory enforcement, trucking exit rates, and early shifts in shipper behavior will be critical. Should demand rebound faster than capacity returns, the U.S. may confront a logistics bottleneck unlike prior crises — one defined not by global port dysfunction, but by domestic trucking scarcity.