Apple Inc. (AAPL), best known for redefining consumer technology through the iPhone, AirPods, and Mac, could be preparing to lead its next major transformation — in humanoid robotics. A new report from Morgan Stanley suggests Apple’s early robotics work could evolve into a $133 billion annual business by 2040, marking what analysts describe as the company’s “next great frontier” after mobile computing and wearables.

Apple’s Future: From iPhones to Intelligent Machines

In the report, Morgan Stanley analysts — including longtime Apple watcher Erik Woodring — estimate that the tech giant could command 9% of the global humanoid robotics market within the next 15 years. That projection represents a conservative “median case,” yet still points to potential annual revenues exceeding $130 billion by 2040.

“Leveraging Apple’s ecosystem, brand strength, and ability to monetize both hardware and services, we believe Apple is well positioned to dominate the robotics market once it matures,” the analysts wrote.

Apple’s history of success in new product categories supports the argument. From redefining personal audio with AirPods to transforming wearables through the Apple Watch, the company has repeatedly turned early skepticism into market dominance. Robotics, though far more complex, represents a logical next step — particularly as AI, computer vision, and spatial computing converge.

The Rise of “Physical AI”

Humanoid robots, once the realm of science fiction, are quickly becoming a tangible reality. Rapid advances in generative AI, sensor miniaturization, and machine learning have enabled tech firms to build machines capable of interacting with people and performing physical tasks.

Nvidia (NVDA) has emerged as a key player in what CEO Jensen Huang calls “physical AI” — the fusion of artificial intelligence and robotics. The company’s Isaac platform and Jetson AGX Thor chip are powering next-generation humanoid prototypes, including those being deployed by Foxconn in its U.S. manufacturing facilities.

Meanwhile, Amazon (AMZN) has rolled out over one million robots in its logistics operations and is experimenting with humanoid designs from Agility Robotics to assist human workers. Its home robot, Astro, provides a glimpse into domestic robotics but remains limited to niche early adopters at $1,599.

Tesla (TSLA) is also making bold claims in the field. CEO Elon Musk has repeatedly said that Tesla’s future value could be driven largely by its Optimus humanoid robot, which the company is testing for manufacturing and household tasks.

Apple’s Advantage: Ecosystem and Capital Power

Apple’s robotics ambitions reportedly build on technology developed during its abandoned self-driving car project, including advanced sensors, machine learning systems, and real-time motion algorithms. According to Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman, the company is experimenting with a robotic arm paired with an iPad-like display that can track users and respond dynamically to speech and gestures — an early example of its human-machine interface design.

With $130 billion in cash reserves and an installed base of 2.3 billion active devices, Apple’s scale and ecosystem integration give it a massive head start. Morgan Stanley estimates that by 2040, roughly 415,000 humanoid robots could be sold annually in the U.S., reaching 1.6 million cumulative household units — about 1.65% penetration.

At an average price of $30,000 per unit, early adoption will likely be limited to affluent households and commercial use cases. But analysts expect costs to decline sharply as production scales and materials improve, much like the trajectory seen with early smartphones and personal computers.

Challenges Ahead: From Cost to Consumer Readiness

Despite the optimism, Apple faces formidable challenges. Perfecting computer vision and motion dexterity to handle complex home environments — including pets, clutter, and fragile objects — remains difficult. Current prototypes across the industry are often slow, cautious, and expensive to produce.

There’s also the question of consumer appetite. Convincing households to spend car-level prices on a robot will require not just technical sophistication but clear, everyday utility. “Until a robot can clean the kitchen as reliably as a dishwasher or vacuum the way a Roomba does, mass adoption will remain distant,” said one industry analyst.

Still, if history is any guide, Apple’s timing may prove prescient. As it did with the iPhone and Apple Watch, the company could once again enter an emerging field late — only to redefine it through design, integration, and experience.