Novo Nordisk Improves Full-Year Financial Outlook

Novo Nordisk (Copenhagen: NOVO-B) raised its 2026 financial outlook for the third time this year, supported by stronger-than-expected quarterly sales of its Wegovy pill and higher volumes across obesity treatments.

The Danish pharmaceutical company now expects adjusted sales and operating profit to range between 2% growth and a 2% decline at constant exchange rates. Its previous forecast anticipated flat performance to a decline of as much as 6%.

The improved third-quarter performance was driven by higher volumes in obesity treatments across the United States and international markets. Novo’s updated outlook assumes continued sales growth internationally, alongside a decline in the US.

The results represent a further step in the company’s efforts to recover market position after declining sales and a significant reduction in its share price over recent years.

Wegovy Pill Becomes a Central Growth Driver

The Wegovy pill emerged as the strongest contributor to Novo’s latest performance. Launched in the United States in January, it generated 5.39 billion Danish crowns (approximately US$810 million) in third-quarter sales, up 53% from the second quarter.

The result exceeded the analyst consensus estimate of 4.62 billion Danish crowns.

The pill has become an important part of Novo’s strategy to restore growth after a two-year slowdown. Although it represents only around 6% of expected sales, analysts view the product as a key opportunity for the company to strengthen its competitive position against Eli Lilly.

Novo estimates that its pill accounts for approximately 80% of new-to-brand prescriptions in the US across reimbursed, cash-pay and telehealth channels.

The company also reported strong positions in selected international markets, including approximately 90% of the UK oral obesity market and 80% in the United Arab Emirates. In Germany, it sold around 100,000 packs within six weeks, primarily to patients new to the GLP-1 drug category.

The pill is currently available in eight markets.

US Pricing Programme Supports Demand

A new US government programme allowing seniors to access obesity drugs for US$50 per month has contributed to the increase in Wegovy pill volumes.

The programme began in July, and Novo’s US leadership attributed much of the approximately 20% quarter-on-quarter increase in pill volumes to the initiative. Without the programme, the broader US obesity drug category was roughly flat between May and October, reflecting seasonal demand patterns.

The company’s injectable Wegovy business faced a more difficult environment. US sales of the injectable treatment declined 13% at constant exchange rates, although combined US Wegovy sales increased 21%.

Novo also said its wider Wegovy franchise accounted for more than 50% of new patient starts among branded obesity drugs.

Competition With Eli Lilly Remains Intense

Novo’s recovery is taking place against strong competition from Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY), which has maintained a leading position in the injectable obesity drug market and recently raised its own outlook following strong demand.

Lilly’s competing Foundayo pill is also gaining a larger share of new prescriptions.

Novo CEO Mike Doustdar said the company had maintained its position since Lilly introduced a rival pill, while acknowledging the need to monitor its competitor closely.

The companies are also competing for participation in the US senior drug programme. Doustdar said that approximately seven out of 10 seniors in the programme choose Lilly’s drugs, but eight out of 10 seniors who select a pill choose Novo’s treatment.

Third-quarter results demonstrate that the competitive balance differs between injectable and oral obesity treatments, with Novo maintaining a stronger position in the pill segment.

Profit Growth Exceeds Analyst Expectations

Novo reported third-quarter adjusted operating profit of 31.72 billion Danish crowns at constant exchange rates, representing a 27% increase from the previous year. The result exceeded analyst expectations of 28.39 billion crowns.

Adjusted sales reached 79.20 billion Danish crowns, compared with the consensus estimate of 73.22 billion crowns.

The stronger financial performance reflects the contribution from higher obesity drug volumes and the growing importance of the Wegovy pill.

The company also announced a leadership change in its finance division. CFO Karsten Munk Knudsen will leave at the end of December, with Luigi La Corte, currently finance chief at Galderma, named as his successor.

What Investors Should Watch Next

Novo’s accelerated Wegovy rollout will be an important factor in determining whether the company can sustain its recovery. Management now plans to introduce the pill in more than 20 countries by mid-2027, bringing forward its previous target of the end of 2027.

Investors will also be watching the competitive response from Eli Lilly, the sustainability of demand under the US senior pricing programme, and whether international growth can offset continued weakness in the US market.

The latest outlook upgrade signals improving operational momentum, but the obesity drug market remains highly competitive. Novo’s ability to convert its strength in oral treatments into broader and sustained financial growth will be central to its longer-term recovery.