Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Join the Selling Pressure

Bitcoin’s ongoing downturn may be entering a critical phase as some of the cryptocurrency’s most committed investors begin exiting positions. According to analysis from Compass Point, long-term holders—those who have held bitcoin for at least 155 days—have shifted from months of relative inactivity to becoming active sellers in recent weeks.

The trend accelerated dramatically over the past two trading sessions, with this group reportedly selling approximately $2.4 billion worth of bitcoin. Because long-term holders traditionally represent one of the most stable segments of the market, their decision to sell carries significant implications for supply-demand dynamics.

Historically, long-term holders tend to accumulate during periods of weakness and distribute assets closer to market peaks. Their recent activity suggests that even high-conviction investors are responding to prolonged market pressure and growing uncertainty surrounding the broader cryptocurrency outlook.

The shift has attracted attention from analysts because capitulation among resilient investors often occurs during the final stages of extended downturns rather than at the beginning of a bear market.

Top Buyers Show Signs of Capitulation

One of the most closely watched developments involves investors who purchased bitcoin at significantly higher prices. Compass Point estimates that 26% of bitcoin sold over the past 30 days originated from investors who entered the market above the $90,000 level.

These investors had largely resisted selling throughout much of the current decline. However, as bitcoin approaches new cycle lows and struggles to regain momentum, some are now choosing to exit positions.

Market historians frequently view this type of behavior as a late-cycle phenomenon. When investors who previously demonstrated strong conviction finally abandon positions, it can indicate that selling pressure is becoming exhausted. While such periods are often painful for market participants, they have historically coincided with the formation of longer-term bottoms across various asset classes.

Analysts caution that capitulation alone does not guarantee an immediate recovery. However, it can mark an important psychological turning point where pessimism reaches extreme levels and potential sellers become increasingly scarce.

ETF Outflows and Weak Sentiment Continue to Weigh on Prices

Despite growing speculation that the bear market may be entering its final phase, bitcoin continues to face significant headwinds. The cryptocurrency remains well below its October peak above $126,000, while broader equity markets continue reaching record highs.

This divergence has created challenges for bitcoin’s primary investment narratives. Investors who viewed bitcoin as a digital alternative to gold have questioned its ability to perform during geopolitical uncertainty, while growth-focused investors have been disappointed by its underperformance relative to technology stocks.

Adding to the pressure, spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds have experienced their longest streak of net outflows on record. ETF assets have fallen significantly from recent highs, highlighting a decline in institutional demand that many analysts consider a key driver of cryptocurrency performance.

Several market observers argue that ETF flows remain the most important determinant of bitcoin’s short-term direction. Without renewed institutional inflows, positive regulatory developments, or broader macroeconomic catalysts, sentiment may remain subdued.

Looking ahead, investors will be closely watching whether capitulation among long-term holders signals the beginning of market stabilization or simply another phase of the current downturn. While the recent selling wave may indicate that the bear market is maturing, a sustainable recovery will likely require renewed investor confidence, stronger ETF demand, and clearer regulatory developments. Until then, bitcoin remains caught between weakening sentiment and the possibility that a longer-term bottom is gradually forming.