President Donald Trump’s announcement supporting the sale of F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia marks a pivotal moment in U.S. regional strategy. It signals a renewed effort to strengthen ties with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman while leveraging defense partnerships to shape broader diplomatic outcomes, including potential normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Yet despite the symbolism of Trump’s approval, the actual path to delivery remains complex, uncertain, and years long. The deal has the potential to redraw defense alignments in the Middle East, but only if it navigates a dense landscape of legal constraints, geopolitical sensitivities, and competing national interests.

Saudi Arabia’s Long-Standing Pursuit of the F-35

For years, Riyadh has sought access to the F-35, one of the world’s most sophisticated fifth-generation stealth aircraft, each costing around $100 million. Trump’s public endorsement provides political momentum that the kingdom has long hoped for. But history offers a cautionary example: the United Arab Emirates was promised the same jets more than five years ago, and none have yet arrived. That delay reflects the political, technological, and diplomatic sensitivities surrounding the platform, especially in a region where Israel holds the exclusive right to operate the aircraft.

The Saudi request carries even greater strategic implications than the UAE case. It is deeply intertwined with Washington’s broader objective of pulling Riyadh closer into a U.S.-led security and diplomatic framework, especially at a moment when China is increasingly active in the Gulf. For Saudi Arabia, securing the F-35 symbolizes more than military prestige—it signals global status, U.S. trust, and advanced defense capabilities aligned with Vision 2030’s modernization goals.

Israel’s Security Concerns and the QME Doctrine

Any sale of F-35s to an Arab nation triggers Israel’s legally protected right to maintain its Qualitative Military Edge, a foundational pillar of U.S. policy in the region. Israel, the only Middle Eastern operator of the jet, will likely seek assurances or compensatory technologies should the Saudi sale advance. U.S. officials maintain that Israel’s security can be preserved even with expanded F-35 delivery, but such assurances remain politically sensitive and are rarely detailed publicly.

This dynamic places Washington in a delicate balancing act: deepening strategic relations with Saudi Arabia without undermining one of its closest regional allies. The negotiations may also influence broader diplomatic efforts, including U.S. attempts to encourage Saudi-Israeli normalization—a long-term prize for American foreign policy in the Middle East.

Geopolitical Risks and the Shadow of China

A complicating factor is Saudi Arabia’s growing technological partnership with China. A Pentagon report earlier raised alarms that advanced F-35 technology could be at risk if Beijing maintains close defense ties with Riyadh. This concern echoes the U.S.-UAE dispute over Huawei’s involvement in local networks, which stalled the Emirati F-35 deal when the Biden administration demanded greater safeguards.

Washington is unlikely to proceed without strong guarantees that sensitive systems remain protected from strategic rivals. This requirement adds another layer of complexity to a process that already hinges on congressional approval, formal requests, and lengthy negotiations with Lockheed Martin, which is managing a global backlog of more than 1,100 aircraft.

A Long Road Ahead for Both Washington and Riyadh

Even with Trump’s endorsement, the sale remains a multiyear undertaking with no guaranteed outcome. Saudi Arabia must formally submit its request, Congress must approve, and the Pentagon must negotiate terms before production slots can even be scheduled. Yet Trump’s announcement reinforces the kingdom’s growing influence in U.S. strategic calculations and signals Washington’s willingness to revisit long-standing defense norms to secure a deeper partnership with Riyadh. For investors and policymakers, the evolving diplomatic and technological landscape surrounding the F-35 remains a significant indicator of shifting regional power dynamics.