Ivory Coast is considering lowering the price it pays cocoa farmers, aligning with neighboring Ghana after a sharp downturn in global cocoa markets. The potential move underscores mounting pressure on the world’s two largest producers, which together account for roughly 60% of global supply. With cocoa futures tumbling nearly 50% in recent months and hitting a two-and-a-half-year low on the ICE exchange, policymakers in Abidjan are grappling with how to shield the sector from structural damage while preserving fiscal stability.

Farmgate Pricing Under Pressure

The farmgate price, set at the start of the harvest season, determines the income farmers receive before intermediaries add value along the supply chain. Ghana has already slashed its 2025/2026 main crop price by 28.6%, citing plunging international prices. According to senior government sources, Ivory Coast is now debating whether to mirror that decision in coordination with Accra.
Such a reduction would mark a significant shift. For years, both governments have sought to stabilize farmer incomes through mechanisms like the Living Income Differential (LID), introduced in 2019 to secure a premium for West African cocoa. However, when benchmark prices fall sharply, maintaining elevated farmgate levels strains public finances and risks creating unsold stockpiles.
Exporters in Abidjan suggest the question is no longer if Ivory Coast will cut prices, but when. Unsold inventories in both countries have weighed on futures, amplifying downward momentum in an already volatile commodity market.

Coordinated Strategy Through ICCIG

The Ivory Coast–Ghana Cocoa Initiative (ICCIG) has intensified coordination as the crisis unfolds. Officials from Ivory Coast’s Coffee and Cocoa Council and Ghana’s COCOBOD remain in close contact, aiming to synchronize policy responses and prevent competitive undercutting.
ICCIG’s executive secretary emphasized that “all options are on the table” and that courageous, realistic decisions will follow. The organization is preparing a joint meeting to review price stabilization tools and reinforce policy alignment. Maintaining coordination is crucial; unilateral action could distort cross-border trade flows and undermine collective bargaining power in global markets.
The broader risk lies in structural damage. Cocoa farming sustains millions of livelihoods across West Africa. A prolonged price slump could reduce reinvestment in plantations, accelerate aging tree cycles, and weaken production capacity over the medium term.

Market Dynamics and Political Constraints

Cocoa’s recent decline reflects shifting speculative flows, improved harvest expectations, and concerns about demand elasticity amid higher chocolate prices globally. As futures retreated from record highs, governments that had budgeted around elevated prices now face narrowing fiscal flexibility.
Politically, reducing farmgate prices is sensitive. Farmers form a critical constituency, and income volatility can fuel social strain. Yet sustaining above-market prices risks swelling deficits and worsening stock accumulation.
Looking ahead, investors and industry participants will watch for an official announcement from Abidjan. A coordinated price adjustment could help restore equilibrium between domestic procurement and international benchmarks. However, if global demand remains soft and inventories build further, additional policy interventions may be required to stabilize the sector.