Investors See Gold Entering a New Phase of Momentum

Gold’s historic rally has sparked one of the most bullish sentiment shifts in years, with a new Goldman Sachs survey revealing that institutional investors expect the metal’s surge to continue well into 2026. Of more than 900 clients polled on the bank’s Marquee platform, 36% said gold will climb beyond $5,000 per ounce by the end of next year, representing the largest voting bloc. Another one-third expect prices to reach between $4,500 and $5,000 — levels that would represent fresh all-time highs.

The bullishness comes after an extraordinary year for the metal. Gold has surged 58.6% year-to-date, breaking decisively above $4,000 for the first time on October 8. The speed of the move has shifted attention from short-term trading to long-term positioning as both institutional and retail players reassess the role of gold in a world defined by monetary uncertainty and geopolitical risk.

Central Banks Drive the Rally as Macro Backdrop Strengthens

The survey underscored a clear theme: central bank buying has become the defining force behind gold’s ascent. About 38% of respondents cited sovereign accumulation as the main catalyst, while 27% pointed to rising fiscal risks in advanced economies. Together, these reflect a growing trend toward de-dollarization and reserve diversification, especially among emerging markets.

Central banks have been purchasing gold at one of the fastest paces in modern history, seeking liquidity, protection from sanctions risk, and insulation from sovereign debt volatility. This dynamic has given gold a stable demand floor that is largely independent of speculative flows.

At the same time, investors continue turning to gold as a hedge against persistent inflation, elevated geopolitical stress, and weakening confidence in government bonds. Spot gold rallied to a two-week high on Friday, boosted by expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut rates as soon as December. Futures traded similarly, with both benchmarks approaching $4,200.

Investment Flows Broaden Beyond Physical Gold

The rally is no longer confined to bullion. Investors are moving deeper into the mining sector as a leveraged bet on the metal’s long-term trajectory. Blue Whale Capital’s Stephen Yiu has taken positions in Newmont, the world’s largest gold miner, while famed short seller Carson Block recently unveiled a rare long bet in Canadian junior miner Snowline Gold — highlighting consolidation opportunities in a sector where capital expenditure has remained historically constrained.

Analysts argue that this shift reflects confidence not only in near-term price support but also in the structural tightening of mine supply. Years of underinvestment have created an environment in which rising demand could quickly outstrip production capacity, magnifying gold’s sensitivity to macroeconomic shocks.

A Bull Market, but Also a Test of Expectations

The big question now is whether gold can justify the lofty expectations being priced in. Much will depend on the trajectory of real yields, global growth, and central bank reserve management. If the economic outlook weakens further — as several strategists forecast — gold could continue its climb into 2026. But if inflation moderates faster than expected or central banks slow their purchases, momentum may cool.

For now, gold remains at the center of investor debate: an asset navigating between safe-haven demand, monetary uncertainty, and a rapidly shifting global economic landscape.