The U.S. government’s record-breaking shutdown may soon end after the Senate approved a short-term funding bill, but travelers are unlikely to see immediate relief. Even as Washington moves toward reopening, the aviation system remains under severe strain, exposing deep structural weaknesses that will take weeks — if not months — to resolve.

More than 20,000 flights were delayed or canceled over the weekend, with thousands more disruptions recorded on Monday. While airlines and airports prepare for a gradual return to normal operations, the effects of the shutdown — from air traffic controller shortages to maintenance and safety backlogs — are expected to linger well into the busy holiday season.

Shutdown Fallout: A Fragile Air Traffic System Under Pressure

Since the start of the government shutdown, air traffic controllers and TSA agents have been working without pay, triggering absenteeism and chronic fatigue across key transportation hubs. To stabilize the system, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) implemented a temporary 10% reduction in domestic flights at 40 major airports, escalating gradually from 4% on Friday to 10% by November 14.

“We are seeing signs of stress in the system, so we are proactively reducing the number of flights to make sure the American people continue to fly safely,” said FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford in a statement.

Airlines including American, Delta, JetBlue, and United have issued travel waivers to allow passengers to reschedule or cancel trips without penalty — a move designed to ease passenger frustration but which underscores the broader operational gridlock.

The shutdown has left thousands of workers — from controllers to safety inspectors — in financial limbo, eroding morale and stretching already thin staffing levels. “The challenge is getting the controllers paid and getting them back on the job right away,” said George Ferguson, aviation analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.

Controller Exodus Adds to Long-Term Risk

Even before the shutdown, the U.S. faced a critical shortage of air traffic controllers. According to Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, retirements averaged four per day before the shutdown — a figure that has since ballooned to 15 to 20 daily departures. That accelerated attrition has left fewer hands on deck, increasing the burden on those still working.

“Controllers have been working mandatory overtime for months,” Ferguson said in an interview with Yahoo Finance. “If this drags on, fatigue and frustration could lead to a slowdown in extra shifts, and that creates serious ripple effects as we approach Thanksgiving.”

Those effects are already visible: Sunday’s 10% cancellation rate — the fourth-highest since early 2024 — represents a stress point rarely seen outside of extreme weather events. Analysts warn that unless pay restoration and re-staffing efforts begin immediately after the government reopens, airspace congestion could persist through the holiday rush.

What Travelers Can Expect: Caution and Contingency Planning

For travelers, the key takeaway is to expect residual disruption even after the shutdown formally ends. Airlines will require days to rebalance schedules, reposition aircraft, and restore coordination between crews and controllers.

Passengers who booked Thanksgiving or early December flights are being advised to monitor real-time updates through platforms like FlightAware, FlightRadar24, and the National Airspace System Status dashboard. Those yet to book may want to consider alternative modes of travel — including trains, buses, or personal vehicles — especially for short- to mid-range routes.

“Controllers won’t walk off the job, but overtime fatigue will hurt operational flexibility,” said Ferguson. “The first few weeks post-shutdown will be a stress test for the entire U.S. aviation system.”

Travel Insurance and Financial Protections: Limited but Useful

Standard travel insurance typically does not cover shutdown-related disruptions, since such events are considered “known risks.” However, policies offering “Cancel for Any Reason” or “Interrupt for Any Reason” coverage can provide partial reimbursement — usually around 75% of trip costs — even if travelers simply decide not to fly.

“Policies with flexible cancellation terms can offer vital financial protection,” said Jeff Rolander, vice president of claims at Faye, a digital travel insurance provider. “It’s critical to purchase coverage before such events unfold, as new policies won’t apply to ongoing disruptions.”

Many premium credit cards, including Chase Sapphire Preferred, also include complimentary travel protections such as trip delay reimbursement, baggage insurance, and rental coverage, which can offset some of the unexpected costs from prolonged delays.

Outlook: A Stressed Recovery Ahead of Peak Travel Season

Even if Congress finalizes the funding bill this week, the path to normalcy will be uneven. Rehiring and retraining controllers takes months, not days, while airline recovery schedules depend on coordination with federal agencies still catching up on backlogged operations.

With Thanksgiving and Christmas travel demand surging, the next few weeks could prove pivotal in determining how well the U.S. aviation sector manages crisis recovery. For now, travelers should brace for a patchy return to normalcy — a reminder that even when Washington restarts, the nation’s skies won’t clear overnight.