Oil Climbs as Hormuz Deal Remains Uncertain

Crude oil extended its recent recovery on Monday as investors reassessed the prospects of an agreement between the United States and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Crude oil rose to $80.86 per barrel on August 10, 2026, up 3.43% from the previous session. Over the past month, oil has gained 3.48% and is up 26.43% from the same period last year, according to the supplied market data.

Brent crude also moved above $85 per barrel as traders continued to price in uncertainty surrounding the strategic waterway.

Iran and Oman have yet to finalize an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Conflicting statements from Tehran and Washington have made it increasingly difficult for markets to determine when normal commercial shipping could resume.

Iran Signals Conditions for Reopening Hormuz

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran is not currently holding direct negotiations with the United States. He also reiterated that reopening the Strait of Hormuz would require Washington to lift its blockade of Iranian shipping and provide compensation for damages.

The comments contrast with earlier indications from U.S. officials that an agreement could be reached relatively soon. President Donald Trump has since suggested that Washington is taking a more cautious approach to the negotiations.

For oil traders, the uncertainty is significant because the Strait of Hormuz is a critical route for global energy shipments. A prolonged disruption could keep a geopolitical premium embedded in crude prices, while a credible agreement allowing unrestricted commercial traffic could quickly remove some of that premium.

Saudi Energy Infrastructure Adds to Supply Concerns

The latest developments around Hormuz are occurring alongside renewed tensions elsewhere in the region.

Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen claimed that they attacked Saudi Arabia’s Jazan refinery on Sunday. A tanker operated by Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. also came under attack in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend.

The incidents are adding to concerns about the security of both energy infrastructure and commercial shipping across the region.

Markets had previously been encouraged by expectations that a U.S.-Iran agreement could restore shipping through Hormuz and ease pressure on global oil supplies. Renewed attacks complicate that outlook and could make traders more reluctant to assume that regional supply risks will disappear quickly.

Oil Market Reverses Earlier Decline

The move above $80 represents a notable reversal from the sharp decline earlier in August.

Oil prices had fallen as investors became increasingly optimistic that negotiations could produce an agreement allowing vessels to move through the Strait of Hormuz. That optimism helped push crude significantly lower before geopolitical developments caused the market to reassess the situation.

The latest rally suggests traders are once again assigning a higher risk premium to crude as uncertainty surrounding the waterway persists.

What Investors Are Watching

The key catalyst for oil prices remains the diplomatic situation involving the United States, Iran and Oman.

A durable agreement that restores unrestricted commercial shipping through Hormuz could place downward pressure on crude by reducing the geopolitical premium and improving expectations for Middle Eastern supply flows.

However, continued attacks on tankers or energy infrastructure could have the opposite effect. Any escalation involving Saudi Arabia, Iran or the Strait of Hormuz could quickly push crude higher, particularly if physical supply disruptions become more severe.

Market Outlook

Oil markets remain highly sensitive to every development surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. The combination of unresolved negotiations, conflicting statements from Washington and Tehran, and renewed attacks involving regional energy infrastructure has made the timing of a return to normal shipping increasingly uncertain. With crude back above $80 and Brent above $85, the market is signaling that geopolitical supply risks remain firmly in focus. A breakthrough in negotiations could trigger another decline in prices, but further escalation could extend the current recovery and keep energy markets under pressure.