The U.S.–China trade relationship, long defined by friction, is experiencing a rare period of relative stability as senior U.S. officials signal that Beijing is meeting the obligations of recent bilateral agreements. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said this week that China is complying with specific commitments made under the renewed tariff truce, including agricultural purchases and steps to reduce barriers that have historically constrained U.S. exporters. The comments come as markets, farmers, and multinational companies assess whether this truce can last amid heightened geopolitical and technological tensions.

Greer emphasized that Washington continues to monitor every aspect of China’s obligations, underscoring a “trust but verify” stance that has shaped trade enforcement under President Donald Trump. While the tone is cautiously optimistic, the long-term durability of compliance remains an open question, particularly with sensitive issues such as technology exports and national security still looming large.

Monitoring Compliance Amid a Fragile Thaw

According to Greer, China has progressed roughly one-third of the way through its soybean purchasing commitments for the current growing season—a key benchmark for American farmers. The agricultural sector has been among the most directly affected by tariffs and retaliatory measures, making these commitments vital to restoring farm income and stabilizing rural markets.

The latest agreement, reached in late October between President Trump and President Xi Jinping, includes elements beyond soybeans: tariff pauses, eased export controls, and a gradual reduction in non-tariff barriers. However, several components—such as TikTok’s sale and expanded rare-earth export licensing—remain in progress, highlighting the complexity of executing a full trade reset.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reinforced Greer’s assessment, noting that soybean prices have risen 12% to 15% since the agreement. He added that while China is not accelerating purchases, it is still expected to fulfill them before the crop year ends. Bessent also confirmed he divested from a soybean farm in accordance with ethics requirements.

Diplomatic Channels Stay Active as Both Sides Seek Stability

Over the weekend, Greer and Bessent held a video meeting with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. According to China’s state-run Xinhua, the session was “constructive,” with both sides vowing to stabilize economic ties and address outstanding concerns. These conversations come at a time when U.S. agencies are preparing additional support measures for domestic agriculture, including a long-awaited farm aid plan expected later this week.

Despite this cooperative tone, policymakers remain sensitive to security concerns—especially regarding advanced semiconductor exports. When asked whether companies like Nvidia should sell cutting-edge chips to China, Greer stressed the need for caution. National security, he said, “must be placed first and foremost,” signaling that export restrictions will continue to evolve alongside technological advancements.

A Trade Relationship That Balances Economics and Security

Washington’s acknowledgment of Chinese compliance marks a notable shift from the confrontational posture that has dominated recent years. Yet the underlying strategic rivalry—particularly over critical technologies—continues to influence trade decisions. Investors and multinational firms will be watching closely as U.S. regulators refine rules governing chip exports, while the agricultural sector remains focused on whether China maintains its current pace of purchases.

As winter negotiations and monitoring efforts continue, both countries appear motivated to keep the truce intact, at least for now. The next test will be whether economic cooperation can withstand the broader geopolitical tensions expected to intensify in 2026.