Gold entered the week with its bullish momentum intact after recording a third consecutive weekly gain, supported by weakness in the U.S. dollar and changing expectations for Federal Reserve policy. The metal is now approaching important technical levels, while developments in U.S. fiscal policy, Iran sanctions, inflation and monetary policy could determine whether the latest advance develops into a broader move.

Dollar Weakness Continues to Support Gold

The relationship between gold and U.S. Treasury yields remains unusual. Normally, higher yields reduce the appeal of a non-yielding asset such as gold, but the recent rise in yields has been driven more by concerns over the sustainability of U.S. debt and the increasing cost of servicing government obligations than by expectations of additional Fed rate hikes.

That distinction has helped keep the dollar under pressure despite higher oil prices. The balance between U.S. fiscal credibility, trade policy and the Federal Reserve’s approach to inflation will therefore remain central to gold’s performance. A further decline in the dollar could provide additional support for the metal, while a stabilization in the currency could limit its near-term momentum.

Iran, Inflation and Jackson Hole in Focus

Several policy and macroeconomic developments could introduce volatility this week. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to announce additional sanctions on Iran, with investors assessing whether the measures could create renewed tensions with China, a major buyer of Iranian energy exports. Any deterioration in U.S.-China trade relations could have broader implications for currency markets and global risk sentiment.

Fiscal policy is another consideration. The prospect of fiscal consolidation has been raised as concerns over U.S. government debt increase, although the scope for significant spending reductions or tax increases remains uncertain given the administration’s broader growth-oriented policies. Meanwhile, the release of U.S. core PCE inflation data and Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium could influence expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve’s next policy decisions.

Gold Approaches Key Technical Resistance

From a technical perspective, gold has already moved through several resistance levels during its recent rally. Some of those former resistance areas could now become support if the metal experiences a short-term pullback. The most important support zone is between $4,500 and $4,541, where the 200-day moving average meets a previous resistance area.

A break below that zone would expose the next support region around $4,400 to $4,450. More importantly, $4,324 represents the latest significant low before the current rally and serves as a key technical dividing line for the bullish structure.

On the upside, $4,655 is the next notable resistance level, followed by the psychological $4,700 and $4,800 areas. Above those levels, the long-term 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near $4,965 and the $5,000 psychological threshold could become increasingly relevant.

Looking ahead, gold’s ability to remain above the $4,500 to $4,541 support zone will be closely watched alongside movements in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields. Iran-related policy, U.S. inflation data and signals from Jackson Hole could determine whether gold challenges $4,655 and $4,800 or retreats toward its established support areas. For global investors, the interaction between fiscal risks, monetary policy and dollar weakness remains the central factor shaping the metal’s next move.