Is Gold on Track to Test All-Time Highs After Shattering the $4,250 Ceiling?

Gold futures delivered a commanding performance this week, aggressively shrugging off early-month consolidation to post one of the strongest weekly gains of the quarter. The precious metal closed the week at $4,269.80 per ounce, securing a 1.77% gain on Friday alone. Throughout the week, the contract displayed consistent buying pressure, rising from a low of $4,072.60 on Monday to a peak of $4,275.00 on Friday. This price action places gold within striking distance of its 52-week high of $4,398.00, suggesting that the “fear trade” and monetary policy expectations are converging to create a perfect storm for bulls.

Fed Pivot Expectations Weaken the Dollar

The primary driver of this week’s rally was the market’s increasing conviction that the Federal Reserve will proceed with an interest rate cut in December. Following a series of softer-than-expected economic data points released early in the week—including lukewarm labor market figures—the U.S. dollar faced headwinds, making dollar-denominated commodities like gold more attractive to foreign buyers.

This sentiment was evident in the trading volumes. Tuesday, November 25, saw the highest participation of the week with a volume of 227.22K, as the price surged 1.13% to close at $4,177.30. This heavy volume indicates institutional accumulation, where fund managers aggressively positioned themselves ahead of the holiday break, betting that the “higher for longer” interest rate narrative has officially fractured.

Navigating the Thanksgiving Liquidity Vacuum

Trading activity later in the week was heavily distorted by the U.S. holiday calendar. Markets were impacted by the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, November 27, 2025. While electronic trading remained open for futures, participation was virtually non-existent, with volume plummeting to just 0.25K contracts. Consequently, price action was muted, with the metal drifting slightly lower by 0.51% to close at $4,195.70.

However, the “holiday drift” often leads to exaggerated moves when traders return, and this was precisely the case on Friday. Despite it being a shortened trading session for many asset classes, gold exploded higher. The lack of liquidity likely exacerbated the move, as a vacuum of sellers allowed the price to drift vertically from an open of $4,214.60 to the $4,275.00 high. This resilience during a low-volume window signals strong underlying demand; buyers were willing to pay a premium to hold exposure over the weekend.

Technical Outlook: The Path to $4,400

From a technical perspective, the reclamation of the $4,200 handle on Wednesday was the pivotal moment of the week. By closing Friday near the highs of the week ($4,269.80), gold has invalidated immediate bearish setups. The market is now eyeing the 52-week high of $4,398.00.

If the momentum sustains into next week, a test of $4,300 seems imminent. However, traders should be cautious of the discrepancy between price and volume; Friday’s rally occurred on very light volume (0.82K), which can sometimes indicate a “bull trap.” The true test will come Monday when full institutional volume returns. If gold can hold above $4,220, the uptrend remains intact.

What to Watch Next Week

Investors should closely monitor the upcoming U.S. employment data and any speeches from Federal Reserve officials. If the data corroborates the cooling economy narrative, gold could make a run for new all-time highs before the year ends. Conversely, a hot inflation print could see the metal retrace back toward the $4,150 support zone.