Gold extended its advance after three consecutive weekly gains, as renewed turbulence around US trade policy and legal uncertainty over tariffs pressured the dollar and revived demand for haven assets. The rally reflects not just short-term volatility, but a broader repricing of geopolitical and fiscal risks that continue to shape global capital flows.

Tariff Shock Revives Haven Demand

Bullion rose as much as 1.4% toward $5,180 an ounce, with spot prices trading around $5,152 in London morning dealings. The move followed President Donald Trump’s announcement that he would impose a new 15% global tariff after the Supreme Court ruled that his prior use of emergency powers to enact sweeping duties exceeded legal authority.

The ruling introduces fresh uncertainty into US trade policy. The White House’s replacement tariff measure is structured as a temporary mechanism, reportedly limited to 150 days and justified under balance-of-payments concerns. However, questions remain over its durability and enforceability. Markets responded swiftly: the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slipped 0.1%, making gold cheaper for non-dollar buyers and reinforcing its appeal as a currency hedge.

Beyond currency effects, the legal setback may also influence fiscal dynamics. Tariff revenues have contributed to federal income streams in recent years, and any disruption could widen deficit projections — a scenario that traditionally supports gold through concerns over sovereign debt sustainability.

Structural Drivers Remain Intact

Gold’s rebound comes after a sharp correction earlier in the month that pulled prices back from record highs. The recovery has been supported by long-term themes: persistent geopolitical tension, skepticism toward fiat currencies, and continued diversification away from sovereign bonds.

Market positioning suggests further upside potential. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show that net-long positions in gold futures have fallen to the lowest level in nearly a year. Historically, reduced speculative exposure during price strength can signal room for renewed accumulation rather than exhaustion.

At the same time, global diplomatic friction is intensifying. The Supreme Court ruling has cast doubt over pending trade agreements, with European Union officials signaling delays in ratification processes and Asian policymakers expressing caution. Heightened unpredictability in global commerce tends to amplify demand for non-correlated assets, reinforcing gold’s defensive role.

Geopolitics and Volatility Ahead

Attention is also focused on escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran. While negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program continue, the significant US military buildup in the region keeps risk premiums embedded in commodity markets. Any shift from diplomacy to confrontation could accelerate flows into precious metals.

Silver climbed 2.7% to $86.96, while platinum and palladium also advanced, indicating broader strength across the precious metals complex. Yet volatility remains elevated. Rapid price swings earlier this year demonstrated how quickly speculative momentum can unwind.

Looking forward, gold’s trajectory will hinge on three interlocking factors: the legal and fiscal implications of US tariff policy, Federal Reserve signaling on interest rates, and developments in Middle East geopolitics. If trade uncertainty persists and fiscal deficits expand, bullion may find sustained support above recent consolidation levels. Conversely, a decisive diplomatic breakthrough or stronger dollar rebound could temper near-term gains.