Turkey’s manufacturing sector maintained a steady pulse in November 2025, with the industry confidence index holding at 100.8—matching October’s five-month peak. The data reflects a cautious optimism among Turkish businesses, balancing stronger order flows and export activity against slower domestic investment and output growth. For investors and policymakers, the results provide both reassurance and areas to monitor as the country navigates an increasingly complex global economic environment.

Stronger Orders and Exports Bolster Confidence

The November reading was buoyed by several key components. The total amount of new orders rose to 88.2 from October’s 84.0, while total orders over the past three months climbed to 104.6 from 101.4, signaling a healthier demand pipeline. Export orders also strengthened, reaching 111.5 compared with 110.3, suggesting that Turkish manufacturers remain competitive internationally despite ongoing global supply chain pressures. The employment outlook edged slightly higher to 99.7, indicating that firms are cautiously optimistic about retaining and potentially expanding their workforce.

These gains highlight the resilience of Turkey’s manufacturing base, which has historically adapted to economic shocks through flexible production strategies and a diversified export portfolio. Analysts note that such trends often precede incremental increases in production and domestic investment, although broader macroeconomic factors—including inflation and currency volatility—could temper these gains.

Offsetting Factors: Stocks, Investment, and Output

Despite the positive signals, several indicators suggest underlying vulnerabilities. Sentiment regarding the current stock of finished goods slipped to 96.8 from 101.2, reflecting concerns over inventory management and potential overproduction. Similarly, the general business situation index fell to 91.0 from 92.4, fixed investment expenditure declined slightly to 106.5 from 107.5, and output volume decreased to 108.0 from 110.1. These declines point to caution among businesses, likely influenced by cost pressures, financing constraints, and uncertainty in domestic demand.

Historical Context and Forward Outlook

Turkey’s business confidence has averaged 99.95 points since 1987, peaking at 123.3 in December 1987 and hitting a record low of 52.6 in December 2008 during the global financial crisis. The current reading of 100.8 situates the sector above its long-term average, but far below historic highs, indicating moderate optimism rather than exuberance.

Looking ahead, Trading Economics forecasts suggest that the confidence index could reach 101.0 by the end of the quarter. Longer-term projections indicate a potential trend toward 105.0 points in 2026 and 103.0 points in 2027. While these numbers suggest a stable trajectory, analysts caution that external factors—ranging from geopolitical developments to shifts in global trade—could influence outcomes.

Monitoring Key Signals

Investors and policymakers will be watching the evolution of orders, output, and investment closely in the coming months. Maintaining export competitiveness, managing inventory effectively, and supporting investment in production capacity will be crucial to sustaining morale and translating confidence into tangible economic growth. How businesses navigate these dynamics will determine whether Turkey can consolidate its recent gains or face renewed volatility in the manufacturing sector.