SpaceX is reportedly preparing an initial public offering of unprecedented scale, aiming for a valuation of up to $1.5 trillion as early as next year. The figure would place the company in the league of the world’s most valuable enterprises before it even enters the public markets. But achieving such a valuation demands investors’ confidence not only in Starlink — SpaceX’s rapidly expanding satellite-internet arm — but also in the sweeping vision of Elon Musk, whose ambitions extend from orbital AI infrastructure to extraterrestrial industry.

A Valuation Built on Starlink’s Momentum

SpaceX is expected to generate $22–24 billion in revenue in 2026, with the majority coming from Starlink. At those levels, a $1.5 trillion IPO implies a valuation multiple of roughly 62.5 times sales — a ratio approached only by a handful of high-growth tech firms such as Palantir Technologies. The difference, however, lies in the scale and speed of Starlink’s expansion: its market extends from underserved rural households to global mobile connectivity, defense customers and corporate clients.

Analysts have projected that Starlink could surpass one billion subscribers by 2040, potentially accounting for nearly three-quarters of SpaceX’s future revenue. If realized, the business would rival the world’s largest telecom operators — but with a vertically integrated model that controls everything from satellites to ground infrastructure. SpaceX’s spectrum acquisition from EchoStar and its partnership with T-Mobile to support remote cellular coverage further bolster this trajectory, positioning the company to disrupt traditional mobile networks.

Musk’s Larger Narrative: Space as the Next Computing Frontier

While Starlink underpins the near-term value proposition, Musk’s justification for a trillion-dollar-plus valuation leans heavily on long-term technological bets. He has publicly nodded to visions of orbital AI data centers, a distributed computing architecture that bypasses terrestrial constraints. He also references Starship-enabled human expansion to Mars, lunar manufacturing, and other speculative frontier industries.

Such concepts are far from conventional valuation models, yet they have become part of Musk’s leadership signature: selling investors on exponential technological frontiers rather than incremental growth. This narrative has historically inspired extraordinary investor loyalty — as seen in Tesla’s valuation climb — but it also raises questions about execution risk, capital needs and technological feasibility.

A Market Divided but Paying Attention

Skeptics point to SpaceX’s lofty multiple, untested emerging businesses and the enormous capital expenditures required for its ambitions. Yet early investors and technology-focused funds argue that the company’s unique strategic position, technological moat and brand strength will attract unprecedented retail and institutional demand at IPO.

The question is not whether SpaceX has potential — but how much of that potential should be priced today.

What to Watch Next

Investor sentiment will hinge on Starlink’s financial performance, regulatory progress surrounding spectrum use, and Starship’s development timeline. The next 12 months will likely determine whether SpaceX transitions from a visionary enterprise into a market-defining megacap — or whether expectations must be tempered as reality catches up to ambition.