Johnson & Johnson is set to report fourth-quarter results on January 21 before the opening bell, with Wall Street expecting another solid performance that reinforces the company’s reputation as one of the most resilient names in global healthcare. Consensus forecasts point to a 21% year-on-year jump in earnings, with adjusted EPS expected at $2.47 on revenue of $24.16 billion, representing growth of roughly 7.4%.

Earnings Outlook Anchored in Core Strength

Analysts view Johnson & Johnson’s earnings trajectory as a validation of its post-patent-expiry strategy. The company has largely absorbed the impact of Stelara’s loss of exclusivity, a milestone that once loomed as a major earnings risk. Instead, growth across its core portfolio has filled much of the gap, helping stabilize revenue and support margins.

JPMorgan analysts describe Johnson & Johnson as one of the “stronger names” in the large-cap pharmaceutical universe, citing consistent execution and diversified exposure across Innovative Medicines and MedTech. This balance has allowed the company to maintain momentum even as parts of the broader healthcare sector face pricing pressure and heightened competition.

Pharmaceuticals and MedTech Drive the Narrative

The Innovative Medicines segment remains central to the bullish thesis. Analysts expect mid-single-digit growth to persist through the end of the decade, supported by newer therapies and expanding indications for existing drugs. In particular, Tremfya’s approval in inflammatory bowel disease is seen as a meaningful catalyst, with expectations for accelerating uptake in 2026 and beyond.

MedTech, while historically a steadier and slower-growing business, is also undergoing a strategic shift. Management has increasingly emphasized higher-growth subsegments, aiming to improve both organic growth and profitability. This repositioning is viewed as critical to sustaining overall revenue growth above 5% over the medium term, especially as pharmaceutical pricing dynamics remain under scrutiny.

Looking Ahead to 2026 Guidance

Beyond the fourth quarter, investors will be listening closely for signals about 2026. Analysts led by Elif Korkmaz forecast operational sales growth of around 5.5% next year, excluding currency effects. Her estimates put 2026 revenue at approximately $99.5 billion, slightly ahead of consensus, with EPS projected at $11.50, broadly in line with Wall Street expectations.

However, sentiment is not uniformly positive. Over the past three months, earnings estimates have skewed modestly downward, with more cuts than raises, reflecting caution around competitive pressures in MedTech, the pace of new product launches, and the company’s perennial exposure to litigation risk. These concerns underscore why even a strong earnings history does not fully insulate the stock from volatility.

Track Record Builds Confidence, but Risks Remain

One factor supporting investor optimism is Johnson & Johnson’s consistency. Over the past two years, the company has beaten both EPS and revenue estimates in every reported quarter, a rare feat among mega-cap peers. That track record raises the bar for expectations but also reinforces credibility around management guidance.

As markets head into the earnings release, the focus will be on whether Johnson & Johnson can once again convert portfolio strength into upside surprises, while reassuring investors on growth durability and risk management in a complex global environment.