China’s November trade figures offered a mixed but notable shift in global demand dynamics. While overall exports returned to growth after an unexpected contraction in October, shipments to the United States plunged nearly 29% from a year earlier — an eighth consecutive month of double-digit declines. The data underscores a widening divergence in China’s export markets, where weakening U.S. demand is increasingly offset by rising shipments to emerging regions such as Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America.

Customs data showed China’s exports rose 5.9% year-over-year in November to $330.3 billion, far exceeding economists’ expectations and reversing the previous month’s 1.1% decline. The rebound signals resilience in China’s manufacturing engine despite global uncertainties. Imports also grew 1.9%, improving slightly from October’s 1% rise, though domestic demand remains soft amid a prolonged slump in the property sector and uneven consumer confidence.

Trade Truce Brings Relief — But Base Effects Loom

November marked the first full month following the year-long trade truce reached between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in late October. Under the agreement, Washington lowered selected tariffs while Beijing committed to halting export controls on critical rare earth minerals. Economists expected this easing to support Chinese shipments, but they warn the improvement may be short-lived.

ING Bank economists Lynn Song and Deepali Bhargava noted that China is entering a period of “unfavorable base effects,” a reference to unusually strong export levels recorded ahead of the latest round of U.S. tariffs earlier in Trump’s second term. These distortions could temper growth rates in the months ahead, complicating assessments of true momentum.

Meanwhile, China’s factory activity contracted for an eighth straight month in November, according to the official manufacturing PMI. The continued decline suggests that external demand, despite recent improvements, has not yet stabilized at a pace strong enough to revive domestic industrial sentiment.

Shifting Global Trade Patterns

The sharp fall in U.S.-bound shipments reflects ongoing structural shifts in global trade realignments. Even with tariff relief, the U.S.–China relationship remains defined by strategic competition and persistent distrust. Companies in both countries continue diversifying supply chains, reducing exposure to geopolitical risk.

At the same time, China is expanding its footprint across emerging markets. Growing demand in Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America has increasingly supported Chinese exporters, helping mitigate losses from developed markets. This diversification aligns with Beijing’s broader push toward advanced manufacturing, a priority underscored at an October high-level policy meeting and expected to be detailed further in upcoming economic planning sessions.

Long-Term Trajectory Remains Intact

Despite near-term uncertainty, several major institutions believe China is positioned to expand its global export share over the next decade. Morgan Stanley forecasts China’s share of global goods exports rising to 16.5% by 2030, up from around 15% today, driven by continued dominance in high-growth sectors including electric vehicles, robotics, batteries, and broader advanced manufacturing.

Yet the outlook depends heavily on geopolitical stability. BNP Paribas strategist Chi Lo warns that the current trade calm is unlikely to last, as structural U.S.–China tensions remain unresolved. For now, however, November’s performance suggests China is on track to meet its 5% economic growth target for the year, buoyed by an export engine that continues to adapt to a shifting global landscape.