Bernstein has raised its long-term outlook for gold prices into 2026, reflecting sustained institutional demand and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. At the same time, the firm warned that much of gold’s bullish narrative may already be priced in, as investors increasingly weigh macroeconomic normalization against safe-haven appeal.

Why Bernstein Is More Constructive on Gold’s Long-Term Floor

Bernstein’s revised forecast reflects a reassessment of gold’s structural support rather than expectations of a renewed speculative surge. Analysts point to continued central bank accumulation, particularly among emerging-market economies seeking to diversify reserves away from the US dollar. This trend has become a defining feature of the gold market over the past several years and is expected to persist into the second half of the decade.

In addition, geopolitical fragmentation and elevated sovereign risk continue to underpin gold’s role as a strategic asset. While headline geopolitical shocks have faded from recent market pricing, Bernstein notes that the underlying drivers—trade realignment, sanctions risk, and regional conflicts—remain unresolved. These factors, taken together, justify a higher long-term price baseline for gold compared with pre-2020 levels.

Macro Headwinds Are Capping Further Upside

Despite the upward revision, Bernstein was explicit in cautioning that gold’s upside potential appears limited from current levels. A key constraint is the outlook for real interest rates. Even if policy easing begins gradually in 2025–2026, real yields are expected to remain positive, reducing the opportunity cost advantage that gold typically enjoys during aggressive easing cycles.

The US dollar’s resilience also plays a central role. While the dollar has experienced periods of softness, it remains structurally supported by relative US growth, deep capital markets, and ongoing demand for dollar-denominated assets. A stable or firm dollar environment tends to limit gold’s ability to break decisively higher, particularly absent a renewed inflation shock.

Investor Positioning Shifts From Hedge to Allocation Tool

Bernstein’s assessment suggests a broader shift in how investors view gold. Rather than serving primarily as a short-term hedge against crisis or inflation, gold is increasingly treated as a strategic portfolio diversifier. This transition supports price stability but reduces the likelihood of sharp, momentum-driven rallies.

Flows into gold-backed ETFs have stabilized after earlier outflows, while physical demand remains uneven across regions. In Israel and globally, institutional investors are showing greater selectivity, balancing gold exposure against alternatives such as inflation-linked bonds and select commodity baskets. This environment favors consolidation rather than explosive upside.

Looking ahead, attention will center on the trajectory of real rates, central bank buying data, and signals from US monetary policy. Risks to Bernstein’s cautious stance include a sharper-than-expected global slowdown, renewed financial stress, or a meaningful deterioration in geopolitical stability—all of which could revive gold’s safe-haven premium. Conversely, sustained disinflation and stronger risk appetite could reinforce the firm’s view that gold’s next phase is defined more by resilience than acceleration.