Americans are no strangers to talking markets over the Thanksgiving table, but this year the spotlight shifted. Instead of debating crypto prices or blockchain projects, families found themselves discussing something new: prediction markets. This fast-growing corner of retail speculation — where users wager on real-world events ranging from political appointments to the timing of Spotify Wrapped — has rapidly moved from Internet curiosity to mainstream financial product.

Prediction Markets Move From Niche to Household Topic

Once confined to crypto subcultures and academic experiments, prediction markets have gained national traction as platforms broaden their offerings and integrate into major trading apps. Kalshi and Polymarket have led the charge, redefining what a “wager” looks like by extending bets to political outcomes, cultural events, and even the behavior of public figures.

The surge intensified this week when Robinhood shares jumped 11% after the company unveiled an expanded prediction-market partnership with Susquehanna International Group. The move fits neatly into Robinhood’s long-term strategy to become a full-spectrum financial platform for its eager retail user base — one that embraces speculation as part of everyday investing.

Robinhood already offers prediction markets through its collaboration with Kalshi, allowing more than one million users to trade nine billion event-based contracts since last year. The activity has generated roughly $100 million in annualized revenue, underscoring the commercial potential of event-driven trading.

With the new Susquehanna alliance, analysts expect Robinhood to deepen its integration of event contracts and accelerate product development in this fast-evolving category.

A Rapidly Expanding Market — and Rising Concerns

The explosive growth of prediction markets is drawing scrutiny from institutional analysts. A recent Bank of America report warned that the convergence of entertainment, gambling, and retail investing could amplify behavioral risks for both consumers and lenders. With mobile sports betting and event wagering now frictionless, analysts argue that impulsive trading behavior is more likely.

The report highlights that gamified interfaces — prompts, streaks, rapid settlement — encourage frequent wagers that may lead users to overextend credit or accumulate high-cost debt. Surveys increasingly show signs of financial strain: one in four active bettors has already missed a bill payment, while nearly half report insufficient emergency savings.

This creates potential systemic risks. Lenders may face higher delinquency rates, rising credit utilization, and unexpected stress on portfolios that have not historically accounted for the behavioral patterns tied to digital wagering. Bank of America noted that underwriting models may need to be recalibrated, particularly for subprime borrowers.

The Untapped Market Keeps Platforms Pushing Forward

Despite warnings, prediction-market companies see enormous opportunity. The U.S. betting ecosystem remains underpenetrated relative to global peers, and demographic trends favor growth. Millennials and Gen Z — already comfortable with meme coins, parlays, and risk-taking — are leading adoption, but older users are increasingly participating as well. Platforms believe that as the public becomes familiar with event contracts, the total addressable market will expand dramatically.

Still, the tension between financial innovation and consumer protection is becoming more pronounced. Regulators have yet to fully clarify how prediction markets should be treated, and the rapid commercialization of event wagering raises broader questions about the boundaries between investment, speculation, and entertainment.

Looking Ahead

Prediction markets are poised to become a defining financial story of 2026, sitting at the intersection of culture, technology, and consumer finance. Their growth presents opportunities for platforms and traders — but also new risks for lenders and households already stretched by inflation and rising borrowing costs. The coming year will likely determine whether prediction markets evolve into a mainstream asset class or face tougher oversight as policymakers weigh innovation against financial stability.