Alphabet Inc. is poised to record another significant paper gain as SpaceX moves forward with a tender offer that effectively values Elon Musk’s privately held aerospace company at roughly $800 billion. The transaction, while not involving new capital for SpaceX, is expected to ripple through Alphabet’s financials by increasing the carrying value of one of its most successful long-term private investments.

SpaceX’s latest insider share sale was reportedly priced at $421 per share, marking a sharp step-up from earlier secondary transactions. That valuation reset matters for Alphabet because accounting rules require large investors to periodically revalue non-marketable equity stakes when observable market prices emerge. For Alphabet, which has held an interest in SpaceX for nearly a decade, such revaluations have already proven material to earnings.

A Long-Standing Bet Comes Back Into Focus

Alphabet, through Google, has been an investor in SpaceX since at least 2015, when it joined Fidelity Investments in a $1 billion funding round that gave the group a combined stake of roughly 10% at the time. While Alphabet does not disclose the size of its current holding, the investment has become one of the most prominent examples of how strategic bets outside its core advertising and cloud businesses can meaningfully influence reported results.

Earlier this year, Alphabet revealed an $8 billion unrealized gain tied to a private-company investment, widely understood by the market to be SpaceX. That disclosure followed a prior tender offer that valued the rocket and satellite company at about $350 billion. The accounting gain helped lift Alphabet’s net income above Wall Street expectations in the March quarter, underscoring how private-market valuations can feed directly into headline earnings.

Why SpaceX’s Valuation Keeps Rising

The latest jump in SpaceX’s implied valuation reflects investor confidence in its dominant position across multiple strategic fronts. Starlink, the company’s satellite internet business, continues to scale globally, while SpaceX’s launch operations remain the backbone of both commercial satellite deployment and U.S. government space activity. The company’s longer-term ambitions, ranging from deep-space exploration to next-generation launch systems, have further reinforced its status as one of the most valuable private companies in the world.

For Alphabet, this creates an unusual dynamic: earnings sensitivity to a business it neither controls nor consolidates. Changes in SpaceX’s valuation are typically recorded as “unrealized gains on non-marketable equity securities,” meaning they can add volatility to quarterly results without affecting cash flow.

Investor Attention Turns to Alphabet’s Next Report

With SpaceX’s tender offer implying a much higher valuation than before, investors are likely to scrutinize Alphabet’s upcoming earnings release for signs of another accounting boost. While such gains are non-operational, they can influence sentiment, valuation multiples and short-term stock performance—especially in an environment where markets are highly sensitive to headline earnings beats or misses.

At the same time, analysts caution that paper gains should not be confused with recurring profitability. Alphabet’s core fundamentals remain tied to advertising demand, cloud growth and cost discipline. Still, SpaceX has once again highlighted how legacy venture-style investments can quietly become powerful contributors to reported performance.