Oklo Stock Soars to Record High: U.S. Air Force Contract Ignites Investor Optimism

First provisional award for supplying electricity from a small modular reactor (SMR) to a military base in Alaska sends OKLO shares soaring, but the road from announcement to actual power delivery remains long.

Shares of Oklo Inc. (NASDAQ: OKLO), a pioneering nuclear technology company focused on the development and deployment of small modular reactors (SMRs), surged by approximately 29.5% this week, reaching an all-time high of $68.03 per share. The company has now delivered a staggering 220.4% return year-to-date, standing out as a clear exception in an energy sector otherwise struggling with weak quarterly performance and regulatory headwinds.

This sharp rally followed the company’s Monday announcement that it had been selected for a Provisional Award from the U.S. Air Force to supply electricity to Eielson Air Force Base in Alaska. This is a landmark recognition by a federal agency of a commercial SMR-based nuclear energy project. Although still in its early stages in terms of regulatory and operational development, the market quickly priced in the future potential.

Innovative Technology, Symbolic Contract

Founded in 2013 and currently trading at a market capitalization of around $9.5 billion, Oklo develops ultra-compact nuclear reactors designed for use in remote areas or industrial sites with limited infrastructure. The company envisions autonomous reactors powered by spent nuclear fuel, with operational lifespans of up to 20 years and minimal maintenance.

To date, however, Oklo has yet to bring a single project into commercial operation. Its theoretical advantages remain untested in real-world deployment. The newly announced contract pertains to the design and development of a system aimed at delivering clean power to a remote military base by the end of the decade. While no material financial figures were disclosed, Oklo’s inclusion as a future energy supplier to the U.S. Department of Defense is viewed as a highly positive signal.

Nevertheless, the agreement is in a preliminary phase: the company is still undergoing a rigorous licensing process with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), and the project is not expected to enter the design phase until at least 2026. Any revenues from the deal—if realized—would likely not materialize until well into the next decade.

Stock at Record High, Fundamentals Still Weak

Despite the excitement around the stock, key financial metrics paint a more cautious picture: a negative price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of -0.59 highlights that Oklo remains unprofitable. Its recent financial reports reflect high R&D expenditures with negligible revenues. Nevertheless, the trading volume on the day of the announcement exceeded 53 million shares—more than three times the monthly average—indicating speculative interest, largely from retail investors.

The stock’s intraday range spanned from a low of $53.36 to a high of $68.91, reflecting extreme volatility reminiscent of early-stage hype stocks like Plug Power or NuScale. Notably, the current average analyst price target stands at $55.93—below the prevailing market price—suggesting either overconfidence among retail buyers or conservative estimates by institutional analysts.

Between Regulation, National Security, and Lofty Promises

Nuclear energy, largely sidelined in recent decades in favor of natural gas and renewables, is experiencing a resurgence. Central to this shift is the recognition that nuclear power may be essential for achieving low-emissions targets. The U.S. government, through its Department of Energy and Department of Defense, is now investing hundreds of millions of dollars annually to accelerate next-generation nuclear technologies.

Still, the transition from prototype to steady power generation is complex and slow. The flagship project of competitor NuScale was recently canceled due to cost and schedule overruns. Other private ventures such as TerraPower (backed by Bill Gates) and X-Energy have yet to overcome the challenges of building a first-of-its-kind facility. Oklo will similarly need to navigate licensing, safety, environmental, and logistical hurdles—obstacles that have grown even more pronounced in the post-Fukushima era.

A Stock Driven by Story, Not Cash Flow

Oklo’s trajectory reflects the current zeitgeist in capital markets: a blend of technological optimism, governmental backing, and speculative capital chasing future breakthroughs. The company’s successful public listing via a SPAC merger (with AltC Acquisition, led by Sam Altman) catapulted it into the spotlight, but this has yet to translate into operational success.

Even if the current contract paves the way for regulatory breakthroughs, investors must consider that potential revenues are likely at least five to seven years away. In the meantime, the stock trades well above any fundamental valuation—if one can even be reasonably estimated—and is fueled more by expectations than by electricity.

Conclusion

Oklo embodies the spirit of the moment: cutting-edge innovation, government validation, and speculative enthusiasm. Yet, as with many stories on Wall Street, stock performance does not necessarily reflect business performance. Without an operational reactor, without revenues, and without regulatory clearance, the company offers more hype than energy.

Savvy investors would do well to distinguish between the compelling narrative—and it is compelling—and the underlying reality. For now, Oklo’s story is just beginning. The future remains uncertain.