Analysis and Comparison of Global Stock Index Performance Since Donald Trump’s Inauguration in 2025

In January 2025, Donald Trump returned to the presidency of the United States, and global markets immediately reacted to this significant political shift. His economic policies, focused on tax cuts, deregulation, strengthening U.S. industries, and addressing international trade issues with countries like China and Russia, had a considerable impact on the performance of leading stock indices worldwide.

This article examines the performance of global stock indices since January 17, 2025, based on the provided data, comparing different markets and identifying key trends.

Overview of Global Index Performance

The data presented in the chart reveals significant variations in the performance of stock indices worldwide since Trump took office.

Top-Performing Indices

1. Russia (RTSI) – Growth of ~50%
   Russia leads global stock market growth with a sharp rise in the RTSI index. This surge is likely driven by rising energy prices (especially oil and gas) and a potentially less adversarial stance by the U.S. toward Russia compared to the Biden administration.
2. Hong Kong (Hang Seng) – Growth of ~20%
   Following years of political uncertainty, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index has rebounded. This growth may be attributed to China’s economic recovery post-pandemic and increased stability in the local banking sector.
3. Germany (DAX) – Growth of ~13%
   The strong performance of Germany’s DAX suggests rising demand for German industrial products despite the broader European economic slowdown in 2023-2024. Strengthened trade relations with the U.S. and overall Eurozone stability contributed to this growth.
4. Switzerland (SMI) & France (CAC) – Growth of 10%-12%
   Switzerland maintained steady growth, driven by a resilient banking sector and demand for pharmaceuticals and financial services. Meanwhile, France’s CAC index benefited from the strength of luxury goods and technology companies.
5. Brazil (BOVESPA) – Growth of ~7%
   Brazil’s economy continues to benefit from rising commodity prices, especially increased demand for raw materials sourced from South America.

Moderate or Underperforming Indices

6. Mexico (BMV IPC) & China (SSE Composite) – Modest Growth
   The ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China has impacted China’s stock market, while Mexico faced economic headwinds due to Trump’s trade policy shifts affecting Latin American agreements.
7. South Korea (Kospi) – Minimal Growth
   South Korea experienced slow market growth, likely due to declining global demand for semiconductors and electronics, along with geopolitical tensions with North Korea.
8. Israel (TA125) – Flat Performance
   The Tel Aviv 125 index remained relatively unchanged, indicating a stable Israeli market with minimal reaction to Trump’s economic policies.
9. Canada (TSE) – Slightly Negative Returns
   Canada’s heavy reliance on trade with the U.S. has made it vulnerable to Trump’s new trade policies, which may have negatively impacted its stock market.
10. United States (S&P 500 Total Return) – Slight Decline
    Surprisingly, the S&P 500 index did not show strong gains, possibly due to economic uncertainty surrounding Trump’s fiscal policies, including tax cuts, tariffs, and rising national debt.
11. Global Index (MSCI WORLD) – Minor Decline
    The decline in the MSCI WORLD index suggests that despite strong growth in select markets, global investors remain cautious, likely due to uncertainty about the long-term effects of Trump’s policies.

Analysis & Conclusions

Markets That Benefited the Most

• Russia, Hong Kong, and Germany saw the highest stock market gains, likely due to rising energy prices, economic stability, and recovering industrial demand.
• Switzerland and France experienced steady growth, largely driven by financial services and luxury goods.
• Brazil saw moderate gains but did not experience an exceptional economic boom.

Underperforming Markets

• The U.S. market did not see strong growth, indicating that investors are still adjusting to Trump’s economic policies.
• Israel, Canada, China, and South Korea showed lower-than-expected returns, reflecting economic uncertainty or geopolitical challenges.
• The MSCI WORLD index slightly declined, indicating a general lack of investor confidence in global markets.

What’s Next?

Will Russia and Hong Kong continue their upward momentum? How will the U.S. economy respond to Trump’s tax and trade policies? Can China regain its dominance in global markets?

These questions will become clearer in the coming months. For now, it is evident that markets have responded with mixed results to Trump’s return, with certain regions benefiting while others face economic adjustments.