While the public debate surrounding Nvidia (NVDA) focuses on whether it will beat earnings estimates, sophisticated traders in the derivatives market have already begun signaling the next targets. Data gathered ahead of the fourth-quarter earnings release reveals a picture that goes beyond mere optimism, pointing to a market structure where major players are positioned for a sustained upward move.

Key Analytical Highlights

• Bullish Market Structure: The Put-to-Call ratio is significantly below 1, indicating that the majority of portfolios are positioned for a rally, with very few seeking protection against a decline.
• Moving Average Convergence: A technical breakout above the 20, 50, and 100-day moving averages signals long-term trend confirmation rather than a momentary fluctuation.
• Performance Benchmarks: The market anticipates over 70% growth in Earnings Per Share (EPS), raising the bar to a level that requires the company to provide exceptional forward guidance.

Reading the Options Traders’ Map

Options serve as the market’s “insurance policy” or “leveraged bet.” Data leading up to the February 27 contract expiration provides a glimpse into how “smart money” is pricing risk:

Volatility Pricing: A clear preference for Call options suggests that traders expect volatility to work in their favor.

Max Pain Point: The maximum pain price for these contracts is gravitating around the $203 level.

Near-Term Potential: This implies the market is “comfortable” with a potential jump of approximately 5% within the immediate timeframe of the coming weekend.

Blackwell Architecture as a Fundamental Indicator

On Wall Street, top analysts like William Stein from Truist are looking beyond raw numbers to understand the depth of next-generation chip adoption.

Resilience Amid Software Weakness:

While the SaaS (Software as a Service) sector is undergoing a valuation reality check, Nvidia enjoys the status of the “national infrastructure provider” for the AI era. Stein maintains a “Buy” rating with a price target of $275, focusing on the cumulative demand from hyperscalers for Blackwell systems.

“Demand for Nvidia’s computing infrastructure is currently decoupled from the volatility of software applications. We are seeing hard capital investment here that ensures long-term growth.” — William Stein, Truist.

The Bottom Line: The True Test Lies in the Guidance

The combination of strong technical data and bullish positioning in the options market places Nvidia in an impressive starting position. However, with earnings growth expectations standing at approximately 71%, the market will not settle for past results alone. The key to the next surge will be the degree of optimism management displays regarding the deployment pace of major customers through 2026.